{"id":16002,"date":"2022-08-26T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/?p=16002&#038;preview=true&#038;preview_id=16002"},"modified":"2022-08-26T15:48:08","modified_gmt":"2022-08-26T12:48:08","slug":"quo-vadis-turkiye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/quo-vadis-turkiye\/","title":{"rendered":"Quo Vadis T\u00fcrkiye?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Quo Vadis<\/strong> Latince bir deyi\u015f olup <em>&#8220;Nereye gidiyorsun? &#8220;<\/em> anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>H\u0131ristiyanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaymakla g\u00f6revli havarilerden Peter, \u0130mparator Neron&#8217;un zulm\u00fcnden kurtulmak i\u00e7in Roma&#8217;dan ka\u00e7ar. Yolda giderken,\u00a0 Hazreti \u0130sa&#8217;ya rastlar. Peter sorar. <em>&#8220;Quo vadis?&#8221; <\/em>\u0130sa cevap verir: <em>\u00a0\u201cRomam vado iterum crucifig.&#8221;<\/em> \u00a0\u00a0<em>(Roma&#8217;ya tekrar \u00e7arm\u0131ha gerilmeye).<\/em> Peter bunun \u00fczerine, Roma&#8217;da b\u0131rak\u0131p ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revini hat\u0131rlar. Cesaretini toplar ve geri d\u00f6ner. Sonra da Aziz ilan edilir, St. Peter olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi tam s\u0131ras\u0131: <em>\u201cQuo Vadis T\u00fcrkiye?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bir \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke olarak kabul edilebilmesi i\u00e7in, en az iki uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fundan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir notu almas\u0131 gerekir. Bu kurulu\u015flar, ABD\u2019de <strong>Securities and Exchange Commission<\/strong> (SEC) taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmal\u0131 ve kurulu\u015f <strong>Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations<\/strong> (NRSROs) kapsam\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu konuda genel kabul g\u00f6ren kriter, derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi notlard\u0131r. <strong>Derecelendirme<\/strong>, kurulu\u015fun veya \u00fclkenin finansal y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini zaman\u0131nda yerine getirip getiremeyece\u011fini tahmin etmek \u00fczere ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc verilerine dayan\u0131larak yap\u0131lan s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmad\u0131r. De\u011ferlendirmenin kolay anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in sembollerle a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. \u00dclkenin ve kurumlar\u0131n borcunu zaman\u0131nda ve d\u00fczenli geri \u00f6deme kapasitesini \u00f6l\u00e7meye yarar.\u00a0<strong>Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu, artan siyasi riskler, yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede etkili fakt\u00f6rlerdir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fitch Ratings T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu B+&#8217;dan B\u2019ye indirmi\u015f, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ise <em>\u201cnegatif\u201d<\/em> olarak onaylad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Rapor\u2019da,\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini, h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen enflasyona, Ukrayna&#8217;daki sava\u015f\u0131n mal piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisine ve\u00a0 geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Aral\u0131k 2021&#8217;den bu yana y\u00fczde 14&#8217;te tuttu\u011funu, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun 2022&#8217;de ortalama y\u00fczde 71,4&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmi\u015f, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 57&#8217;ye gerileyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fitch; h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7ici makro ihtiyati politikalar\u0131n, makroekonomik ve finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik riskleri azaltmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n<p>Fitch 12 \u015eubat\u2019ta ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararda da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu BB-\u2018den B+\u2019ya indirdi\u011fini, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ise <em>\u201cnegatif\u201d<\/em> olarak \u00a0onaylad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Rapor\u2019unda<em>, &#8220;daha s\u0131k ve yo\u011fun politika odakl\u0131&#8221;<\/em> finansal stres d\u00f6nemlerinin, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de y\u00fcksek enflasyonu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u0131\u015f likiditeyi ve zay\u0131f politika g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyada \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fme yolunda olan \u00fclkeler kalk\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilmek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye ile finansal sermayeyi \u00fclkeye \u00e7ekmek isterler. <strong>Do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye ile finansal sermayenin menkul k\u0131ymet piyasalar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m yapabilmesi i\u00e7in \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenilir olmas\u0131 gerekir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun i\u00e7in\u00a0 \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00f6deyebilmelerine ili\u015fkin olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bilgi sahibi olaca\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6stergelere ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r. Bir \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke olarak kabul edilebilmesi i\u00e7in, en az iki uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fundan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir notu almas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kurulu\u015flar, ABD\u2019de <strong>Securities and Exchange Commission<\/strong> (SEC) taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmal\u0131 ve kurulu\u015f <strong>Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations <\/strong>(NRSROs) kapsam\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde SEC taraf\u0131ndan NRSROs olarak kabul edilen 10 kurulu\u015f \u00a0a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#ambest\">M. Best Rating Services, Inc.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#dbrs\">DBRS, Inc.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#demo\">Demotech, Inc.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#egan-jones\">Egan-Jones Ratings Co.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#fitch\">Fitch Ratings, Inc.\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#hr\">HR Ratings de M\u00e9xico, S.A. de C.V.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#japan\">Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#kroll\">Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Inc.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#moodys\">Moody&#8217;s Investors Service, Inc.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html#sandp\">S&amp;P Global Ratings<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/ocr\/ocr-current-nrsros.html)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi notlar\u00a0 \u00f6nemlidir.<\/strong> Derecelendirme; kurulu\u015fun veya \u00fclkenin finansal y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini zaman\u0131nda yerine getirip getiremeyece\u011fini tahmin etmek \u00fczere ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc verilerine dayan\u0131larak yap\u0131lan s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmad\u0131r. De\u011ferlendirme, kolay anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in sembollerle a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. \u00dclkenin ve kurumlar\u0131n borcunu zaman\u0131nda ve d\u00fczenli geri \u00f6deme kapasitesini \u00f6l\u00e7meye yarar.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu, artan siyasi riskler, yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, artan enflasyon not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede etkili fakt\u00f6rlerdir. T\u00fcm derecelendirme kategorileri i\u00e7in en iyi ve en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8216;AAA&#8217; ile &#8216;D&#8217; aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmektedir. En iyi ve en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo kredi notlar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f performansa dayal\u0131d\u0131r. (\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/site\/re\/10111579)<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yak\u0131ndan izleyen S&amp;P\u00a0 olumsuz not verirken, Fitch daha objektif notland\u0131rma yapmaktad\u0131r. Moody\u2019s en iyimser kurulu\u015ftur ama uzun d\u00f6nemde bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fkenin etkilerini bar\u0131nd\u0131rmayan notlar da a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Moody\u2019s i\u00e7in <em>\u201cs\u0131f\u0131rc\u0131 hoca\u201d<\/em> denmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Fitch\u2019e g\u00f6re siyasi kayg\u0131lar\u0131n rehberli\u011finde Merkez Bankas\u0131; h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen enflasyona, Ukrayna&#8217;daki sava\u015f\u0131n mal piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisine, \u00e7o\u011fu geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikas\u0131na ra\u011fmen politika faizini Aral\u0131k 2021&#8217;den bu yana \u00a0y\u00fczde 14&#8217;te tutmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 8 ay sonra ilk\u00a0 defa faiz indirimine giderek politika faizi 100 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle y\u00fczde 13&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Merkez Bankas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl 2021&#8217;de faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, politika faizi 4 ayda 500 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek y\u00fczde 19&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 14&#8217;e \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB&#8217;nin Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klama \u015f\u00f6yledir:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cTCMB, fiyat istikrar\u0131 temel amac\u0131 do\u011frultusunda enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret eden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler olu\u015fana ve orta vadeli y\u00fczde 5 hedefine ula\u015f\u0131ncaya kadar elindeki t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131 lirala\u015fma stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde kararl\u0131l\u0131kla kullanmaya devam edecektir. Fiyatlar genel d\u00fczeyinde sa\u011flanacak istikrar, \u00fclke risk primlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ters para ikamesinin ve d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesi ve finansman maliyetlerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak gerilemesi yoluyla makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar\u0131 olumlu etkileyecektir. B\u00f6ylelikle, yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u00fcretim ve istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde devam\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun zemin olu\u015facakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmetin y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bunun i\u00e7in; TL \u00a0\u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletecek, uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nleyecek, \u00a0artan enflasyonu indirecek, y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in sermaye giri\u015fleri te\u015fvik edecek \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/banks\/sukuk-rating-criteria-13-06-2022\">https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/banks\/sukuk-rating-criteria-13-06-2022<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritada T\u00fcrkiye orta riskli \u00fclkeler grubunda g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir ama tablodaki durumu da pek i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/sovereigns\/fitch-downgrades-turkiye-to-b-outlook-negative-08-07-2022#:~:text=Fitch%20-%2008%20Jul,of%20this%20rating%20action%20commentary.<\/p>\n<p>Tek tek veya toplu olarak <strong>olumsuz<\/strong> derecelendirme eylemine\/s\u0131n\u0131f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye yol a\u00e7abilecek fakt\u00f6rler\u00a0 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Makro<\/strong>: Makroekonomik ve finansal istikrar risklerini azaltmada ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olan bir politika kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi, bir enflasyon-d\u00f6viz kuru amortisman\u0131 sarmal\u0131 veya daha zay\u0131f mudi g\u00fcveni.<\/li>\n<li><strong>D\u0131\u015f Finansman<\/strong>: Devlet veya \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f finansmana eri\u015fimin azalmas\u0131 ve\/veya cari hesap a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli geni\u015flemesi nedeniyle uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerde s\u00fcrekli azalma da dahil olmak \u00fczere artan \u00f6demeler dengesi bask\u0131lar\u0131.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yap\u0131sal \u00f6zellikler<\/strong>: \u0130\u00e7 siyasi veya g\u00fcvenlik durumunda veya uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde ekonomiyi ve d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde etkileyen ciddi bir bozulma.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ki\u015fisel veya toplu olarak <strong>olumlu<\/strong> derecelendirme eylemine\/y\u00fckseltmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek fakt\u00f6rler ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Makro:<\/strong> G\u00fcveni istikrara kavu\u015fturan, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi art\u0131ran ve enflasyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek makroekonomik ve finansal istikrar risklerini azaltan g\u00fcvenilir ve tutarl\u0131 bir politika kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>D\u0131\u015f Finansman<\/strong>: Cari a\u00e7\u0131k daralmal\u0131, artan sermaye giri\u015fiyle d\u0131\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar azalt\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fitch\u2019in\u00a0 \u00a0tespitleri do\u011frultusunda gereken \u00f6nlemler \u015fimdiden al\u0131nmaz ise, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi \u00e7ok zor bir k\u0131\u015f beklemektedir. Bu olumsuz duruma se\u00e7imler yakla\u015f\u0131rken giderek artacak b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 da eklenirse, gidecek yer kalmayacakt\u0131r. Bu ortamda acaba kim <\/strong><strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u201c<em>St. Peter<\/em>\u201d olacakt\u0131r?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke olarak kabul edilebilmesi i\u00e7in, en az iki uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fundan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir notu almas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":16007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[349,2217,2416],"coauthors":[6],"class_list":["post-16002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-fitch","tag-kredi-derecelendirme"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16002"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16008,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16002\/revisions\/16008"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16002"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=16002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}