{"id":19399,"date":"2025-12-10T21:00:01","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T18:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/?p=19399"},"modified":"2025-12-10T19:06:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T16:06:05","slug":"israilin-hava-ve-deniz-tasimaciligina-yonelik-yaptirimlar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/israilin-hava-ve-deniz-tasimaciligina-yonelik-yaptirimlar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130srail&#8217;in Hava ve Deniz Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na Y\u00f6nelik Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama d\u0131\u015f ticarete, havayolu ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131na ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">hava ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, di\u011fer t\u00fcm yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan daha a\u011f\u0131r sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furur.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Hava Sahas\u0131 ve Havaliman\u0131 Yasaklar\u0131<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131na ini\u015f yasa\u011f\u0131: El Al ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u0130srail havayolu \u015firketleri Avrupa, Asya ve Amerika hatlar\u0131nda ciddi kay\u0131p ya\u015far. Bu, sadece yolcu de\u011fil, kargo ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da fel\u00e7 eder.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e u\u00e7u\u015f yasa\u011f\u0131: \u0130srail turizmi (%4-5 GSYH katk\u0131s\u0131) \u00e7\u00f6ker, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve diplomatik ba\u011flant\u0131lar zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Etki:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Uluslararas\u0131 izolasyon hissi artar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Turizm gelirlerinde milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k kay\u0131p.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130\u015f insanlar\u0131n\u0131n hareketlili\u011fi ve ihracat ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 ciddi darbe al\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Denizcilik Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail band\u0131ral\u0131 gemilerin yabanc\u0131 limanlara sokulmamas\u0131: \u0130srail\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %99\u2019u deniz yoluyla yap\u0131l\u0131r. \u0130srail band\u0131ral\u0131 gemiler uluslararas\u0131 ticaretten fiilen d\u0131\u015flan\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019e u\u011frayan gemilerin di\u011fer limanlara kabul edilmemesi: Bu, daha a\u011f\u0131r bir yapt\u0131r\u0131md\u0131r. \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131yan herhangi bir gemi ba\u015fka bir \u00fclkeye giremeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in, uluslararas\u0131 nakliye \u015firketleri \u0130srail\u2019i rotadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Etki:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019in ithalat\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle enerji, g\u0131da ve hammadde) felce u\u011frar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130hracat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (y\u00fcksek teknoloji, kimyasallar, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri) d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131na ula\u015famaz.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Liman ambargosu, \u00fclke ekonomisinin can damar\u0131n\u0131 kesmekle e\u015fde\u011fer olur.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Ekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">K\u0131sa vadede:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Akaryak\u0131t, do\u011falgaz, bu\u011fday gibi temel ithalatlarda arz \u015foku.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Fiyatlar h\u0131zla artar, enflasyon kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Orta vadede:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019in ihracat gelirleri azal\u0131r (2024\u2019te ~165 milyar $ ihracat\u0131 vard\u0131).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sanayi ve teknoloji sekt\u00f6rleri hammadde k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131na girer.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Uzun vadede:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Toplumda siyasi bask\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmete y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7 muhalefet art\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Diplomatik ve Stratejik Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail, b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">tam diplomatik izolasyon<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> ya\u015far.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">ABD veya birka\u00e7 m\u00fcttefikin deste\u011fi kalsa bile, k\u00fcresel ticaret yollar\u0131ndan kopmak stratejik yaln\u0131zl\u0131k yarat\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bu t\u00fcr bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m, G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019daki <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Apartheid rejimine kar\u015f\u0131 uygulanan uluslararas\u0131 boykotun daha sert bir versiyonu<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> olur.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Etkinlik De\u011ferlendirmesi<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, ekonomik ve diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131dan <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019e uygulanabilecek en sert ve fel\u00e7 edici \u00f6nlemlerden biridir.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Tek ko\u015ful: <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00c7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin koordineli uygulamas\u0131<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> gerekir. ABD, AB ve b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin birlikte uygulamas\u0131 h\u00e2linde \u0130srail ekonomisi birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde a\u011f\u0131r kriz ya\u015far. E\u011fer sadece birka\u00e7 \u00fclke uygularsa, \u0130srail alternatif rotalarla (\u00f6r. K\u0131br\u0131s, Yunanistan, ABD, Hindistan \u00fczerinden) sistemi k\u0131smen a\u015fabilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Sonu\u00e7<span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131na ini\u015f yasa\u011f\u0131, yabanc\u0131 u\u00e7aklar\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e gitmesinin yasaklanmas\u0131 ve denizcilik ambargosu <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaretini, enerji arz\u0131n\u0131, turizmini ve diplomatik ili\u015fkilerini k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6kertir.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Bu, \u0130srail\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 uygulanabilecek en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve etkili yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketidir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yasa\u011f\u0131n (hava \u2013 deniz \u2013 diplomasi) \u0130srail ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki muhtemel bir y\u0131ll\u0131k senaryosunu (GSYH, enflasyon, ticaret dengesi, i\u015fsizlik etkileriyle) tablo haline getirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1 y\u0131ll\u0131k, nicel ve nitel senaryo analizi;<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u00d6nce k\u0131sa bir \u00f6zet ve temel varsay\u0131mlar, sonra iki alternatif senaryoya (1. Koordine k\u00fcresel ambargo \u2014 en sert; 2. B\u00f6lgesel\/AB-UK a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ambargo \u2014 orta \u015fiddet) dayal\u0131 tahmini etkiler ve sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar verilmektedir. Ard\u0131ndan \u0130srail\u2019in alabilece\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler ve s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar yer al\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Not: model, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtilmi\u015f varsay\u0131mlara dayan\u0131r \u2014 ger\u00e7ek sonu\u00e7lar uygulayan \u00fclkelerin say\u0131s\u0131, s\u00fcresi, \u0130srail\u2019in alternatif lojistik\/finans yollar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel piyasadaki arz-talep esnekli\u011fine g\u00f6re h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fir. Temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin kaynaklar\u0131: IMF\/World Bank (GSYH), OEC (ihracat), Reuters\/Times of Israel (enflasyon verileri), OECD (i\u015fsizlik) vb.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Temel (mevcut) referans de\u011ferler \u2014 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Nominal GSYH (2024 civar\u0131, USD): ~$560\u2013583 milyar <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(IMF)<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Y\u0131ll\u0131k ihracat (mal+hizmet, 2023 civar\u0131): ~$60\u201365 milyar (\u00fcr\u00fcn bazl\u0131 ihracat). <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Observatory of Economic Complexity<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T\u00fcketici enflasyonu (2024 sonu \/ 2025 ba\u015f\u0131): ~%3 civar\u0131\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130\u015fsizlik (son y\u0131llar, OECD verisi): \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; ayl\u0131k\/sezonluk verilerde ~%2,5\u20133,5 civar\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Varsay\u0131mlar <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(modelde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m ana kabuller)<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hava- ve deniz ambargosu tan\u0131m\u0131:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T\u00fcm\/\u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke, \u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n kendi havaalanlar\u0131na ini\u015fini yasakl\u0131yor (\u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131na ini\u015f yasa\u011f\u0131).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bir k\u0131s\u0131m\/\u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke, kendi havayollar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e u\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 yasakl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail bayrakl\u0131 gemiler t\u00fcm yabanc\u0131 limanlardan men ediliyor ve ayr\u0131ca \u201c\u0130srail\u2019e u\u011frad\u0131\u201d deniz ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer limanlara giri\u015fine k\u0131s\u0131t getiriliyor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Uygulama dereceleri (senaryolara g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fir).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">S\u00fcre: 12 ay boyunca kademeli, s\u00fcreklilik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Alternatif rotalar \/ ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f: Baz\u0131 ticaret akt\u00f6rlerinin maliyetli alternatif (kara\/boru, 3. \u00fclke bayrak de\u011fi\u015fimi, re-flagging, transshipment) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerine ba\u015fvuraca\u011f\u0131 kabul\u00fc var; bu \u00f6nlemler zaman ve maliyet y\u00fck\u00fc getirir, tam telafi etmez.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale \/ asker\u00ee durum g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor; analiz ekonomik ve lojistik etkilere odakl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>Senaryo A<b> \u2014 Koordine k\u00fcresel hava+deniz ambargosu <\/b><\/h2>\n<p>(ABD + AB + b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ticaret \u00fclkeleri + ana havayollar\u0131 uyguluyor)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(Karar alan \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcresel deniz ve hava ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc temsil etti\u011fi, yani etkili ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 uygulama)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Ana nicel tahminler \u2014 12 ayl\u0131k etkiler (yakla\u015f\u0131k)<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><b>G\u00f6sterge<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 (yakla\u015f\u0131k)<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>12 ayl\u0131k etki (Tahmini aral\u0131k)<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>A\u00e7\u0131klama<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">GSYH (y\u0131ll\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">$560\u2013583B<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%12 ila -%22 (negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130thalat darbo\u011fazlar\u0131, ihracat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n durmas\u0131.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130hracat (mal+hizmet)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">$60\u201365B<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%70 ila -90%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Deniz ve hava kesintisi ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretim ve ihracat kanallar\u0131 kapan\u0131r.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130thalat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%50 ila -80%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Enerji, g\u0131da, hammadde ithalat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r; fiyatlar y\u00fckselir.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Enflasyon (T\u00dcFE, y\u0131ll\u0131k)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">~%3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">+%15 ila +%60 (y\u0131ll\u0131k)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Temel mal k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u015fok.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130\u015fsizlik<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">~%3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">%12 ila %25<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">H\u0131zl\u0131 iflaslar, ihracat-yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlerde i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Cari denge \/ rezervler<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">G\u00f6reli fazla\/denge<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">H\u0131zla bozulma; rezerv erimesi<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">D\u00f6viz rezervleri ithalat finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Para birimi (ILS)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Keskin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (\u00f6r. %20+ k\u0131sa vadede)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve rezerv kullan\u0131m\u0131yla.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">K\u0131sa gerek\u00e7e: Deniz ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u0130srail d\u0131\u015f ticaretinin can damar\u0131d\u0131r. Gemiler ya ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 durdurur ya da ba\u015fka limanlara y\u00f6nlenir; kargo maliyetleri, gecikmeler ve sigorta primleri tavan yapar. Hava ambargosu y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli personel, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 seyahatleri ve kargo ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bloke eder. Enerji (petrol\/rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler\/ hatta LNG), bu\u011fday ve kritik girdi tedari\u011finde ciddi kriz olur; \u00fcretim durur, t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fok art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ciddi koordinasyon varsa (\u00f6zellikle ABD kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131r.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> (Bu genel sonu\u00e7 ekonometri de\u011fil; makro mant\u0131k ve benzer tarihsel \u00f6rneklemeler temelinde makul aral\u0131klard\u0131r.)<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Senaryo B \u2014 B\u00f6lgesel \/ AB-UK + baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck liman \u00fclkelerinin k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>(orta \u015fiddet)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(AB, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Hollanda, Yunanistan\/\u0130talya gibi baz\u0131 denizcilik merkezleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fck havayollar\u0131 uyguluyor; ABD veya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00e7ekimser)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Ana nicel tahminler \u2014 12 ayl\u0131k etkiler (yakla\u015f\u0131k)<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><b>G\u00f6sterge<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>12 ayl\u0131k etki (Tahmini aral\u0131k)<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">GSYH<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">$560\u2013583B<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%4 ila -10<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130hracat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">$60\u201365B<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%30 ila -55<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130thalat<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-%20 ila -50<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Enflasyon<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">~%3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">+%6 ila +20<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130\u015fsizlik<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">~%3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">%6 ila %12<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Cari denge \/ rezervler<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bozulma; ancak tam \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f yok<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Para birimi<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Orta derecede de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (%5\u2013%20)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">K\u0131sa gerek\u00e7e: B\u00f6lgesel ambargolar \u0130srail ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 zorlar (\u00f6zellikle Avrupa rotalar\u0131), fakat deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel oldu\u011fundan baz\u0131 akt\u00f6rler alternatif rotalar veya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc-\u00fclke armat\u00f6rleriyle ta\u015f\u0131ma yaparak k\u0131smi telafi sa\u011flayabilir. T\u00fcrkiye, G\u00fcney Afrika veya Uzak Do\u011fu \u00fczerinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirme, maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131r ama tam kesinti yaratmayabilir. Yine de enerji\/g\u0131da tedarikinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ve fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 etkiler<\/h2>\n<p>(\u00f6zellikle dikkat edilmesi gerekenler)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Enerji (petrol, rafineri \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, LPG\/LNG): \u0130srail ileri d\u00fczey enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 olsa da ham petrol ve rafinasyon \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihrac\u0131\/yede\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Liman ambargosu tedariki geciktirir \u2192 yak\u0131t k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ula\u015f\u0131m maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">G\u0131da ve temel mallar: Bu\u011fday, ya\u011f, yan \u00fcr\u00fcnler ithalat\u0131 aksarsa fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar gelir. Sosyal istikrar riski y\u00fckselir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve ihracat-yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6r: Bilhassa high-tech donan\u0131m ihrac\u0131 (kargo &amp; lojistik) darbe al\u0131r; hizmet ihrac\u0131 (yaz\u0131l\u0131m) k\u0131smen internet \u00fczerinden devam etse de fiziksel \u00fcr\u00fcn ihrac\u0131 zorla\u015f\u0131r. Sigorta primleri (war risk) artar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Havayollar\u0131 &amp; turizm: El Al ve di\u011fer operat\u00f6rler b\u00fcy\u00fck gelir kayb\u0131; turizm neredeyse durur. D\u00f6viz geliri d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bankac\u0131l\u0131k \/ Finans: Uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demeler zorla\u015f\u0131r; SWIFT \/ banka eri\u015fimleri etkilenirse ciddi nakit s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fur. (SWIFT\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma gibi \u00f6nlemler ayr\u0131 etki yarat\u0131r.)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Lojistik\/liman i\u015fletmecili\u011fi: E\u011fer transit limanlar\/3. \u00fclkeler \u0130srail\u2019e hizmet vermekte isteksizse, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetleri tavan yapar; gemi sahtek\u00e2rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (re-flagging), \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc-\u00fclke armat\u00f6rleri artar ama gecikme ve maliyet y\u00fcksek olur.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>Muhtemel k\u0131sa vadeli sosyal ve siyasi sonu\u00e7lar<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Temel mal k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2192 halk tepkileri, protestolar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">H\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00fczerinde i\u00e7 bask\u0131 artar; g\u00fcvenlik kararlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">M\u00fcltekil\/insani yard\u0131m kanallar\u0131 da etkilenebilir (uluslararas\u0131 lojistik k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019in alabilece\u011fi\/deneyece\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler (ve s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131)<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc-\u00fclke bayrakl\u0131 transit (re-flagging), transshipment kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u2014 zaman al\u0131r, maliyetli; baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler bunu yasaklayabilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Kara koridorlar\u0131 \/ kom\u015fu \u00fclke limanlar\u0131 (\u00f6r. K\u0131br\u0131s, T\u00fcrkiye, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u00dcrd\u00fcn \u00fczerinden) \u2014 jeopolitik engeller ve altyap\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">D\u00f6viz rezervlerini kullanarak kritik ithalat\u0131 finanse etme \u2014 rezervler erir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130\u00e7 \u00fcretimi art\u0131rma seferberli\u011fi (g\u0131da, enerji ikamesi) \u2014 orta\/uzun vadede yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur, k\u0131sa vadede yeterli de\u011fil.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Diplomatik yo\u011fun \u00e7aba (m\u00fczakere, muafiyetler) \u2014 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n esnetilmesinin tek h\u0131zl\u0131 yolu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>K\u0131s\u0131tlar, belirsizlikler ve g\u00fcvenilirlik notlar\u0131<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">konjonkt\u00fcre ve uygulay\u0131c\u0131 \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> ABD\u2019nin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sonucu \u015fiddetle a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0130srail\u2019in teknoloji-a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 fiziksel teslimat gerektirirken bir k\u0131sm\u0131 (yaz\u0131l\u0131m, dijital hizmet) internet \u00fczerinden devam edebilir \u2014 bu kalemler krizi hafifletebilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sigorta \/ lojistik pazarlar\u0131n\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 (war-risk primleri, nakliye firmalar\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131) belirleyici olur.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Kaynaklar: IMF\/World Bank (GSYH), OEC (ihracat), Reuters\/Times of Israel (enflasyon), OECD (i\u015fsizlik).\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>H\u0131zl\u0131 \u00f6zet<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">E\u011fer geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131, koordineli bir hava ve deniz ambargosu uygulan\u0131rsa, \u0130srail ekonomisi <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">ilk 12 ay i\u00e7inde \u00e7ift haneli GSYH k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, ihracatta %70\u201390 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f, enflasyonda \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f (%15\u2013%60 aras\u0131nda)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> ve i\u015fsizlikte b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7rama (\u00fc\u00e7ten iki kat\u0131na veya daha fazlas\u0131na) ya\u015fayabilir. B\u00f6lgesel\/parsiyel ambargoda etki daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ama yine de a\u011f\u0131r: GSYH -%4 ila -10, ihracat -%30 ila -55, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik orta-y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterir. Ambargonun etkinli\u011fi do\u011frudan uygulayan \u00fclkelerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r; ABD ve b\u00fcy\u00fck liman\/ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k \u00fclkelerinin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olursa etki en y\u00fcksek olur. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131na ini\u015f yasa\u011f\u0131, yabanc\u0131 u\u00e7aklar\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e gitmesinin yasaklanmas\u0131 ve denizcilik ambargosu \u0130srail\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaretini, enerji arz\u0131n\u0131, turizmini ve diplomatik ili\u015fkilerini k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6kertir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":191,"featured_media":19403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3249,3250,409],"coauthors":[2344],"class_list":["post-19399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-deniz-tasimaciligi","tag-hava-tasimaciligi","tag-israil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/191"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19399"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19399\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19401,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19399\/revisions\/19401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19399"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=19399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}