Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran soka\u011f\u0131, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iki farkl\u0131 manzara sunmaktad\u0131r: Bir yanda devletin t\u00fcm medya ve lojistik imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla d\u00fcnyaya servis etti\u011fi g\u00f6rkemli “destek mitingleri”, di\u011fer yanda ise a\u011f\u0131r bask\u0131 ve karartma alt\u0131nda varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan “rejim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 protestolar”. Bu iki kitlesel eylem bi\u00e7imini sadece kalabal\u0131klar\u0131n hacmi \u00fczerinden k\u0131yaslamak, \u0130ran siyasetinin derin dinamiklerini anlamay\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131z k\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir analitik yan\u0131lg\u0131d\u0131r. Yaz\u0131m\u0131zda bu yan\u0131lg\u0131 analiz edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Siyaset biliminde ve kitle psikolojisinde, \u00f6zellikle otoriter ve totaliter rejimlerin h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc siyasal ba\u011flamlarda, rejim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 protestolar ile devlet eliyle organize edilen \u201cdestek mitingleri\u201dni ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlerle de\u011ferlendirmek ciddi bir metodolojik hatad\u0131r. D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda her iki olgu da meydanlarda toplanan insan say\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinden okunabilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, bu say\u0131n\u0131n siyasal anlam\u0131, me\u015fruiyet de\u011feri ve temsil etti\u011fi toplumsal irade bak\u0131m\u0131ndan aralar\u0131nda nitel bir u\u00e7urum bulunmaktad\u0131r. Nicel benzerlik, i\u00e7eriksel ve yap\u0131sal bir e\u015fde\u011ferli\u011fe i\u015faret etmez; aksine \u00e7o\u011fu zaman siyasal ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin \u00fczerini \u00f6rten bir yan\u0131lsama \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n
Otoriter bir d\u00fczende rejim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir protestoya kat\u0131lmak, demokratik bir \u00fclkede veya otoriter rejimlerdeki devlet desteti\u011fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen s\u0131radan bir y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015ften k\u00f6kten farkl\u0131 bir ontolojik ve siyasal tercihtir. Bu t\u00fcr rejimlerde soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kmak, siyaset biliminin kavramsalla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bi\u00e7imiyle \u201cy\u00fcksek maliyetli kolektif eylem\u201d niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131r. Birey, protestoya kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda yaln\u0131zca siyasal bir talep dile getirmez; ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00f6zalt\u0131na al\u0131nma, sistematik \u015fiddete maruz kalma, i\u015fkence g\u00f6rme ya da do\u011frudan ya\u015fam hakk\u0131n\u0131n ihlal edilmesi ihtimalini pe\u015finen kabul eder. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra keyfi yarg\u0131lama s\u00fcre\u00e7leriyle uzun s\u00fcreli hapis cezalar\u0131na \u00e7arpt\u0131r\u0131lma, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma, mal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na el konulmas\u0131 ve toplumsal damgalanma yoluyla bir t\u00fcr \u201csivil \u00f6l\u00fcme\u201d mahk\u00fbm edilme riski de bu tercihin ayr\u0131lmaz par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla rejim kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir eylemde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kat\u0131l\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131, basit bir istatistik de\u011fil; korku e\u015fi\u011finin hangi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren somut bir siyasal g\u00f6stergedir. Bu ba\u011flamda on bin ki\u015filik bir protesto, her biri a\u011f\u0131r bedelleri g\u00f6ze alm\u0131\u015f on bin ayr\u0131 siyasal iradenin e\u015fzamanl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr h\u00e2le gelmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
Devlet taraf\u0131ndan organize edilen destek mitingleri ise tamamen farkl\u0131 bir te\u015fvik, g\u00fcvenlik ve anlam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7inde \u015fekillenir. Bu t\u00fcr mobilizasyonlar, devletin resm\u00ee ayg\u0131tlar\u0131, belediye imk\u00e2nlar\u0131, kamu kaynaklar\u0131 ve medya g\u00fcc\u00fcyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcr. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan burada s\u00f6z konusu olan bir risk alma durumu de\u011fil, tam tersine bir g\u00fcvenlik ve stat\u00fc teyidi aray\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. Devletin \u015fiddet tekelinin kendi saf\u0131nda oldu\u011funu bilen birey, polis korumas\u0131 alt\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu ve herhangi bir cezai yapt\u0131r\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayar. \u00d6zellikle kamu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131, \u00f6\u011frenciler ve rejimle ekonomik veya idari ba\u011f\u0131 bulunan kesimler i\u00e7in bu kat\u0131l\u0131m \u00e7o\u011fu zaman g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc bir siyasal destekten ziyade, mevcut konumu korumaya y\u00f6nelik dolayl\u0131 bir zorunluluk niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131r. Maddi te\u015fvikler, sembolik \u00f6d\u00fcller, idari izinler ya da \u00e7e\u015fitli kolayl\u0131klar bu mobilizasyonu besleyen ek unsurlar olarak devreye girer. Bu nedenle devlet destekli mitinglerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kalabal\u0131klar, toplumun rejime duydu\u011fu g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc r\u0131zay\u0131 de\u011fil; rejimin lojistik, b\u00fcrokratik ve zorlay\u0131c\u0131 seferberlik kapasitesini \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n
Bu iki farkl\u0131 kitleyi salt say\u0131sal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck \u00fczerinden kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, siyasal ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi ciddi bi\u00e7imde \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131r. Otoriter rejimlerde muhalif eylemlerin g\u00fcc\u00fc ve derinli\u011fi, nicelikten \u00e7ok niteliksel g\u00f6stergeler \u00fczerinden okunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Eylemlerin \u015fiddete ra\u011fmen s\u00fcreklilik kazan\u0131p kazanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, yaln\u0131zca ba\u015fkent merkezli kal\u0131p kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da ta\u015fraya, sanayi havzalar\u0131na ve \u00e7evre b\u00f6lgelere yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, farkl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131fsal, etnik ve ku\u015faksal gruplar\u0131n ortak talepler etraf\u0131nda bulu\u015fup bulu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan belirleyici kriterlerdir. Bu unsurlar, rejimle toplum aras\u0131ndaki fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steren daha g\u00fcvenilir g\u00f6stergeler sunar.<\/p>\n
Analizi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran bir di\u011fer yap\u0131sal unsur ise bilgi karartmas\u0131d\u0131r. Otoriter rejimler kriz anlar\u0131nda interneti keserek, ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 fel\u00e7 ederek ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z g\u00f6zlemcileri sahadan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rarak tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir ger\u00e7eklik in\u015fa etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu strateji, bir yandan muhalif protestolar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek hacmini gizlemeyi, di\u011fer yandan devlet destekli mitinglerin boyutunu abartmay\u0131 hedefler. Sonu\u00e7ta her iki t\u00fcr mobilizasyona ili\u015fkin say\u0131sal veriler metodolojik olarak g\u00fcvenilmez h\u00e2le gelir ve nicelik temelli analizler ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde sorunlu bir zemine oturur.<\/p>\n
Otoriter rejimlerde toplumsal \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun hangi siyasal akt\u00f6r\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda durdu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7ebilmenin asgari ko\u015fulu, kar\u015f\u0131t t\u00fcm taraflara e\u015fit, \u00f6zg\u00fcr ve g\u00fcvenli protesto imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ko\u015fullar sa\u011flanmadan yap\u0131lan her t\u00fcr say\u0131sal kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, toplumun ger\u00e7ek siyasal e\u011filimini de\u011fil; devletin zor ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanma kapasitesini ve lojistik seferberlik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla rakamlar, siyasal me\u015fruiyetin de\u011fil, bask\u0131 ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011finin g\u00f6stergesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Otoriter d\u00fczende devlet, tarafs\u0131z bir hakem olma vasf\u0131n\u0131 yitirerek do\u011frudan siyasal alan\u0131n bir akt\u00f6r\u00fc h\u00e2line gelir. Bu durum, toplumun farkl\u0131 kesimleri i\u00e7in iki ayr\u0131 ger\u00e7eklik \u00fcretir. Bir yanda, devletin maddi, kurumsal ve sembolik imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, eylemi g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nan ve kimi zaman \u00f6d\u00fcllendirilen \u201cte\u015fvik edilen\u201d bir kesim vard\u0131r. Di\u011fer yanda ise ayn\u0131 eylemi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in sistematik bask\u0131ya, g\u00f6zalt\u0131na, i\u015fini kaybetme tehdidine ve \u201csivil \u00f6l\u00fcm\u201d riskine maruz b\u0131rak\u0131lan \u201ccezaland\u0131r\u0131lan\u201d muhalif kesim bulunur. Ayn\u0131 fiil\u2014soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kmak\u2014iki farkl\u0131 siyasal stat\u00fcye tabi tutulur.
\nBu e\u015fitsiz ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda siyasal a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nicelikle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Belirleyici olan, kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk ve maliyet d\u00fczeyidir. Muhalefet, y\u00fcksek riskli ve y\u00fcksek maliyetli bir alanda varl\u0131k g\u00f6sterir; bir bireyin protestoya kat\u0131lmas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca fiziksel \u015fiddeti de\u011fil, ekonomik ve toplumsal y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 da g\u00f6ze almas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. \u0130ktidar yanl\u0131s\u0131 mobilizasyon ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve g\u00fcvenli bir zeminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir; devletin medya ayg\u0131tlar\u0131yla sesi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclen bu kesim, \u201criskten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u201d bir siyasal faaliyetin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle otoriter ba\u011flamda, t\u00fcm bask\u0131 mekanizmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen protestolar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, devlet destekli ve milyonlarla ifade edilen mitinglerden \u00e7ok daha derin bir toplumsal deste\u011fe i\u015faret eder. Bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki kat\u0131l\u0131m, yaln\u0131zca meydanda bulunan bireyleri de\u011fil; korkuya ra\u011fmen bast\u0131r\u0131lamayan, geni\u015f ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez bir siyasal iradeyi temsil eder. Sokakta g\u00f6r\u00fclen be\u015f protestocu, e\u015fit ve \u00f6zg\u00fcr ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce ki\u015fiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelebilecek bir toplumsal enerjinin yaln\u0131zca g\u00f6r\u00fcnen y\u00fcz\u00fcd\u00fcr.
\nDevletin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karartma politikalar\u0131 bu tabloyu daha da belirginle\u015ftirir. \u0130nternet kesintileri ve sans\u00fcrle bir grubun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistematik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez k\u0131l\u0131n\u0131rken, di\u011fer grubun sesi devlet televizyonlar\u0131 ve resm\u00ee kanallarla s\u00fcrekli yank\u0131lan\u0131r. Bu bilgi asimetrisi, niceliksel analizleri b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle i\u015flevsiz h\u00e2le getirir. Ger\u00e7ek toplumsal g\u00fc\u00e7, devletin te\u015fvikiyle in\u015fa edilen kalabal\u0131klarda de\u011fil; devletin t\u00fcm \u015fiddetine ve karartmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr kalmay\u0131 ba\u015faran sivil iradede somutla\u015f\u0131r<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle otoriter rejimler alt\u0131nda kitlesel hareketleri anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir analistin bakmas\u0131 gereken yer, sadece say\u0131lar\u0131n kendisi de\u011fil, bu say\u0131lar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki maliyet dengesi ve risk da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Devletin t\u00fcm imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla seferber etti\u011fi kalabal\u0131klar\u0131n siyasal me\u015fruiyeti, devletin t\u00fcm \u015fiddetine ra\u011fmen soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kan binlerin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda her zaman daha k\u0131r\u0131lgand\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ek siyasal g\u00fc\u00e7, r\u0131zan\u0131n t\u00fckendi\u011fi noktada, zora ve tehdide ra\u011fmen ortaya konan iradede somutla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Otoriter rejimlerde toplumsal \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun hangi siyasal akt\u00f6r\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda durdu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7ebilmenin asgari ko\u015fulu, kar\u015f\u0131t t\u00fcm taraflara e\u015fit, \u00f6zg\u00fcr ve g\u00fcvenli protesto imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":19590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[694,630,1262,3309,3290,2628],"coauthors":[40],"class_list":["post-19503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-humeyni","tag-iran","tag-iran-islam-cumhuriyeti","tag-mobilizasyon","tag-protesto","tag-rejim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19503"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19591,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19503\/revisions\/19591"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19503"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=19503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}