ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki stratejik tercihini SDG\u2019den yana de\u011fil, do\u011frudan \u015eam y\u00f6netimi lehine kullanmas\u0131, basit ve konjonkt\u00fcrel bir ‘akt\u00f6r de\u011fi\u015fimi’ olarak nitelendirilemez. Bu tercih, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 dinamiklerin bir kesi\u015fimi olsa da, esasen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki konumu ve b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz a\u011flar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z okunamaz. Washington\u2019un bu stratejik y\u00f6nelimi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel etki alanlar\u0131n\u0131n tasfiyesi s\u00fcrecinde daha sert ve belirleyici bir evreye ge\u00e7ildi\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n
\u015eunu belirtmek gerekir ki; s\u00f6z konusu s\u00fcre\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz yaln\u0131zca ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkiye indirgenerek analiz edilemez. Ancak bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, metodolojik bir tercih olarak geli\u015fmeler; bu \u00fc\u00e7 akt\u00f6r\u00fcn olu\u015fturdu\u011fu stratejik denklemin merkezine oturtularak ele al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu metnin temel amac\u0131; Suriye’deki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn \u0130ran ekseninde Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun jeopolitik dengeleri \u00fczerindeki muhtemel etkilerini; Hizbullah, Husiler ve Ha\u015fd-i \u015eabi gibi akt\u00f6rlerin gelece\u011fini ve b\u00f6lge genelindeki yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 neden-sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7erisinde, analitik bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede de\u011ferlendirmektir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, art\u0131k y\u00f6netilebilir krizler a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakarak son evresine girmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Washington ve Tel Aviv\u2019in temel hedefi, belirsizli\u011fi uzatmak de\u011fil; \u0130ran dosyas\u0131nda somut ve kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar elde etmektir. \u00d6zellikle hem b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde hem de \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ciddi bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f bir \u0130ran tablosu, bu akt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201c\u0130ran sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zme\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tarihsel bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k s\u00fcrecinde \u201c\u00f6zg\u00fcr bir \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ziyaret edebilece\u011fi\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler, sembolik oldu\u011fu kadar siyasal bir anlam da ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi, son y\u0131llarda giderek sertle\u015fen bask\u0131 ayg\u0131t\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle toplumsal g\u00f6sterilerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00fcm bilan\u00e7osuyla, varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fiddet kullan\u0131m\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131r tan\u0131mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymu\u015ftur. Rejimin i\u00e7 muhalefete kar\u015f\u0131 sergiledi\u011fi bu s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z \u015fiddet ve tavizsiz tutum, ABD ve \u0130srail nezdinde Tahran’\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikadaki olas\u0131 ‘\u015fiddet e\u015fi\u011fi’ne dair b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik ve g\u00fcvensizlik do\u011furmaktad\u0131r. Washington ve Tel Aviv a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, ‘kendi halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bu denli sertle\u015febilen bir akt\u00f6r\u00fcn, d\u0131\u015f tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 rasyonel ve hukuki s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde tepkiler verebilece\u011fi’ \u015feklinde varolu\u015fsal bir g\u00fcvenlik riski olarak kodlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu alg\u0131, \u0130ran ile do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini tetiklemekte ve s\u00fcreci \u00e7ok boyutlu bir haz\u0131rl\u0131k a\u015famas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Nitekim ABD ve \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir topyek\u00fbn \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma senaryosunun askeri, siyasal ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek ad\u0131na kapsaml\u0131 ve \u00f6nleyici stratejik haz\u0131rl\u0131klar y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u2018\u2018\u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc haz\u0131rl\u0131k\u2019\u2019 perspektifi ba\u011flam\u0131nda stratejik oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 giderek daha net bi\u00e7imde \u0130ran\u2019a \u00e7evirmesi, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki genel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini de d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmektedir. \u0130srail, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan askeri yo\u011funlu\u011funu g\u00f6rece azaltarak, dikkatini \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendisine ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n destekledi\u011fi b\u00f6lgesel yap\u0131lara y\u00f6neltmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu sefer daha zor bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyorlar. ABD ise paralel bi\u00e7imde, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki m\u00fcttefikleriyle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 jeopolitik p\u00fcr\u00fczleri ve \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 asgariye indirmeye, \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 hatt\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca sorunsuz ve uyumlu h\u00e2le getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu stratejinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran\u2019a mesafeli ya da a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 y\u00f6netimlerin b\u00f6lgede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve istikrarl\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6zel bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kritik bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Merkezi ve b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyan bir Suriye devleti, \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel hatta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir jeopolitik destek sunma potansiyeline sahiptir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, SDG ve ona yak\u0131n yap\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 stratejisine hizmet edebilecek bir ara\u00e7 olmaktan uzak oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu nedenle Washington\u2019un tercihini \u015eam merkezli bir devlet yap\u0131s\u0131ndan yana kullanmas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca Suriye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin de\u011fil; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzunun s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f bir stratejinin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak okunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran dosyas\u0131 art\u0131k ertelenen ya da dondurulan bir sorun de\u011fil; b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczenin yeniden kurulmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi hedeflenen merkez\u00ee bir mesele h\u00e2line gelmi\u015ftir. Suriye\u2019den Irak\u2019a, L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan Yemen\u2019e uzanan hat \u00fczerinde ya\u015fanan t\u00fcm geli\u015fmeler, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejik y\u00f6nelimin tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 par\u00e7alar\u0131 olarak \u015fekillenmektedir.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019de ya\u015fananlar, yar\u0131m as\u0131rdan uzun bir s\u00fcredir \u00fclkeye h\u00e2kim olan siyasal ideolojinin ve bu ideolojinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel ili\u015fkiler mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiilen sona erdi\u011fine i\u015faret etmektedir. Suriye art\u0131k ABD ve \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 eksenin merkezinde yer alan bir \u00fclke olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kmakta; Suudi Arabistan ve di\u011fer Arap \u00fclkelerine daha yak\u0131n bir siyasal kategoriye do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yaln\u0131zca d\u0131\u015f politika d\u00fczleminde de\u011fil, Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 ve siyasal istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da belirleyici olacakt\u0131r. Suriye\u2019nin konum de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki siyasal ve ekonomik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin de yeniden \u015fekillenmesi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Nitekim Suriye\u2019nin son on y\u0131llarda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131, ABD ve \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulu d\u0131\u015f politika hatt\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yd\u0131. Bu hatt\u0131n terk edilmesi, farkl\u0131 bir Suriye\u2019nin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Golan Tepeleri\u2019nin \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgal edilmesinden bu yana, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD ve \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ekseni Suriye\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek tarihsel ve jeopolitik olarak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak\u2019tan Yemen\u2019e uzanan bu eksen, silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri, ideolojik hatlar\u0131 ve lojistik a\u011flar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, merkezinde her zaman Suriye\u2019nin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yap\u0131 olarak \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. \u0130srail, bu eksene kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman do\u011frudan askeri m\u00fcdahaleye dahi gerek duymadan, Suriye\u2019deki dengeyi hedef alarak b\u00f6lgesel sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n kurulu\u015fu ve kurumsalla\u015fmas\u0131, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki silahl\u0131 dengelerin \u015fekillenmesi, Filistinli \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin askeri ve lojistik kapasite kazanmas\u0131 ve Yemen\u2019de Husilerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi; Suriye olmaks\u0131z\u0131n tutarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde analiz edilemeyecek geli\u015fmelerdir. Suriye, bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir ge\u00e7i\u015f ve ikmal hatt\u0131, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 i\u00e7in siyasal himaye alan\u0131, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 i\u00e7in ise b\u00f6lgesel me\u015fruiyet \u00fcretim merkezi i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.
\nBu ba\u011flamda Suriye, yaln\u0131zca co\u011frafi konumuyla de\u011fil; Filistin meselesi, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ve \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ideolojik ve askeri mimarisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da b\u00f6lgesel bir kilit ta\u015f\u0131 niteli\u011findedir. \u015eam\u2019daki y\u00f6netimlerin pozisyonu, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve ittifak ili\u015fkilerinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyen temel de\u011fi\u015fkenlerden biri olagelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Suriye\u2019nin muhtemel bir pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, yaln\u0131zca \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 siyasal ve toplumsal dengelerini de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fcfuz stratejisinden Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n hareket kabiliyetine, Filistin direni\u015f gruplar\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesinden Yemen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerine kadar geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileme potansiyeline sahiptir. Suriye\u2019de ya\u015fanan her yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkilerini yeniden tan\u0131mlayan zincirleme sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle Suriye, Ortado\u011fu denkleminde bir \u201cyan cephe\u201d ya da \u201cikincil akt\u00f6r\u201d de\u011fil; aksine, b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hatlar\u0131n\u0131n kesi\u015fti\u011fi ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm co\u011frafyaya yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik bir merkez olarak ele al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Suriye\u2019nin y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde, b\u00f6lgenin dengesi de ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak de\u011fi\u015fmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Suriye\u2019de iktidarda bulunan kadrolar\u0131n en ay\u0131rt edici \u00f6zelli\u011fi, ideolojik, askeri ve tarihsel olarak k\u00f6kle\u015fmi\u015f sert bir \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131d\u0131r. Bu gruplar, Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n destekledi\u011fi yap\u0131larla de\u011fil; do\u011frudan \u0130ran rejimi ve Hizbullah unsurlar\u0131yla sahada sava\u015fm\u0131\u015f, a\u011f\u0131r bedeller \u00f6demi\u015f ve bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan beslenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir siyasal haf\u0131za geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Bu haf\u0131za, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yaln\u0131zca rakip de\u011fil, varolu\u015fsal bir d\u00fc\u015fman olarak kodlamaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u2018\u2018kahraman\u2019\u2019 olan Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani, bu gruplar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde M\u00fcsl\u00fcman katili olarak bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n
Buradaki kritik e\u015fik \u015fudur: Saddam H\u00fcseyn\u2019i hari\u00e7 tutarsak bug\u00fcne kadar hi\u00e7bir Arap y\u00f6netimi, \u015eam\u2019daki mevcut iktidar kadar a\u00e7\u0131k, ideolojik ve tavizsiz bir \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sergilememi\u015ftir. Bu kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k diplomatik s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyinde kalmamakta; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz hatlar\u0131n\u0131 kesmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck somut jeopolitik tercihlerle desteklenmektedir. Bu durum, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltan yap\u0131sal bir k\u0131r\u0131lma anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu ba\u011flamda, yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netiminin ABD ve \u0130srail ile ili\u015fkileri farkl\u0131 gerek\u00e7eler, zorunluluklar ve pragmatik hesaplar \u00fczerinden \u015fekilleniyor olsa da; bu ili\u015fkilerin kesi\u015fti\u011fi ortak zemin a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eam\u2013Washington\u2013Tel Aviv hatt\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bu \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fme, ideolojik bir ittifaktan ziyade, \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201dnin lojistik, askeri ve siyasal s\u00fcreklili\u011fini bozma hedefi etraf\u0131nda olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu hatt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yaln\u0131zca Suriye\u2019de de\u011fil; L\u00fcbnan, Filistin, Irak ve Yemen ba\u011flam\u0131nda da etkinli\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan zincirleme sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmektedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel stratejisinin belkemi\u011fini olu\u015fturan kara ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131, ikmal hatlar\u0131 ve m\u00fcttefik a\u011flar\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flamaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle \u015eam\u2019daki iktidar de\u011fi\u015fimi, \u0130ran i\u00e7in geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir taktik kay\u0131p de\u011fil; b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonunu yeniden tan\u0131mlamaya zorlayan stratejik bir yenilgi niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019yi bug\u00fcn y\u00f6neten kadrolar, i\u00e7 sava\u015f s\u00fcrecinde do\u011frudan Hizbullah ile sahada \u00e7at\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerden olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle Hizbullah, yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131radan bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil; ideolojik, siyasal ve askeri olarak \u00f6teki ve en \u00f6nemlisi bir d\u00fc\u015fman konumundad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7evrelerin s\u00f6ylem ve literat\u00fcr\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Hizbullah, \u201cHizb\u00fc\u015feytan\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lmakta; eli M\u00fcsl\u00fcman kan\u0131na bula\u015fm\u0131\u015f, \u201cM\u00fcsl\u00fcman katili\u201d bir yap\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu alg\u0131, \u015eam\u2019daki yeni iktidar\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 tutumunun ge\u00e7ici ya da taktiksel de\u011fil, yap\u0131sal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Esad rejiminin devrilmesi ve \u015eam\u2019da Ahmed \u015eara y\u00f6netiminin i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na gelmesi, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde daraltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6ncelikle Hizbullah, Suriye gibi hayati bir jeopolitik zemini kaybetmi\u015ftir. Bu kay\u0131p yaln\u0131zca fiziksel bir alan kayb\u0131 de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 zamanda Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n lojistik, askeri ve siyasal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lan stratejik arka bah\u00e7enin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Suriye\u2019nin kayb\u0131yla birlikte Hizbullah, \u0130ran\u2019a a\u00e7\u0131lan ana destek hatt\u0131n\u0131 da fiilen yitirmi\u015ftir. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle Hizbullah, Suriye\u2019yi kaybederek jeopolitik \u201cnefes alma alan\u0131n\u0131\u201d da kaybetmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Esad y\u00f6netiminin devrilmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019a sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 lojistik ve mali destek ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran art\u0131k Hizbullah\u2019a eskisi gibi d\u00fczenli, g\u00fcvenli ve geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli kaynak aktaramamaktad\u0131r. Bu durum, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n yaln\u0131zca askeri kapasitesini de\u011fil; L\u00fcbnan i\u00e7 siyasetindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve toplumsal me\u015fruiyetini de do\u011frudan etkilemektedir. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki a\u015f\u0131nma, \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn sosyal a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 ve taban\u0131n\u0131 ayakta tutma kabiliyetini de s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r.
\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n L\u00fcbnan ve Filistin \u00fczerindeki b\u00f6lgesel etkinli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Suriye \u00fczerinden in\u015fa edilmi\u015fti. Bu hatt\u0131n kopmas\u0131yla birlikte \u0130ran, s\u00f6z konusu alanlarda stratejik derinli\u011fini ve operasyonel esnekli\u011fini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yitirmi\u015ftir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flama, yaln\u0131zca \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn kendi i\u00e7 dinamikleriyle a\u00e7\u0131klanamaz; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201dnin omurgas\u0131nda meydana gelen yap\u0131sal bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n do\u011frudan sonucudur.<\/p>\n
Hizbullah, tarihinin en k\u0131r\u0131lgan d\u00f6nemlerinden birine girmi\u015ftir. Suriye\u2019nin kayb\u0131, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7ten giderek yerel ve savunmac\u0131 bir akt\u00f6re do\u011fru itmekte; \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn uzun vadeli varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve etkisini ciddi bi\u00e7imde tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmektedir. Bu durum, yaln\u0131zca Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n de\u011fil, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki b\u00fct\u00fcn stratejik mimarisinin yeniden sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yemen\u2019deki Husilerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz hatt\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirilemez. Sahadan gelen veriler ve b\u00f6lgesel analizler, Husilerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve zaman i\u00e7inde askeri-siyasal bir akt\u00f6re d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinde Suriye ve Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n kilit bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6stermektedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Yemen\u2019de do\u011frudan co\u011frafi eri\u015fiminin olmamas\u0131, Husilerin b\u00f6lgesel sisteme eklemlenmesini dolayl\u0131 kanallar \u00fczerinden zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; bu noktada Suriye, \u0130ran-Hizbullah-Husi hatt\u0131n\u0131n lojistik, ideolojik ve \u00f6rg\u00fctsel aktar\u0131m zemini i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
\u015eam y\u00f6netiminin de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve Suriye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel konumunun k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, Husilerin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu stratejik hatlardan birini fiilen zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Suriye\u2019nin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir \u00e7izgiye yerle\u015fmesi, yaln\u0131zca Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 de\u011fil, Yemen\u2019deki Husi hareketini de dolayl\u0131 olarak etkilemektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ahmed \u015eara y\u00f6netiminin Yemen meselesinde nerede duraca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir durumdad\u0131r: Yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netimi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131larla mesafeli, hatta kar\u015f\u0131t bir pozisyon almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yemen\u2019deki b\u00f6lgesel ve siyasal safla\u015fma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Suriye\u2019de ya\u015fanan bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn Suudi Arabistan lehine bir denge de\u011fi\u015fimi yarataca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Husiler \u00fczerindeki etki kanallar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, Riyad\u2019\u0131n Yemen\u2019de uzun s\u00fcredir s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc stratejik m\u00fccadelenin ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece iyile\u015ftirmektedir. Suriye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan kopmas\u0131, Husilerin yaln\u0131zla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, K\u00f6rfez eksenli d\u00fczenin b\u00f6lgesel a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netimi, \u0130ran\u2019a yak\u0131n silahl\u0131 gruplarla m\u00fccadele ederek iktidara gelmi\u015f bir yap\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, Yemen\u2019de Husiler gibi \u0130ran destekli akt\u00f6rlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck ya da a\u00e7\u0131k bir mesafe politikas\u0131 izlemesi muhtemeldir. Bu durum, Husilerin yaln\u0131zca askeri kapasitesini de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgesel me\u015fruiyet ve diplomatik manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019deki rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, Yemen sahas\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir m\u00fcdahale anlam\u0131na gelmese de, Husilerin arkas\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel ekosistemi zay\u0131flatan yap\u0131sal bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki n\u00fcfuz a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131n\u0131n Yemen aya\u011f\u0131nda da hissedildi\u011fini ve Husilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha dar bir stratejik alanda hareket etmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Saddam H\u00fcseyin rejiminin devrilmesi, \u0130ran\u2019a Ortado\u011fu\u2019da siyasal, ideolojik, mezhepsel ve jeopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan tarihsel f\u0131rsatlar sunmu\u015ftur. Bu geli\u015fmeyle birlikte \u0130ran, ilk kez Tahran\u2019dan Beyrut\u2019a uzanan kesintisiz bir kara hatt\u0131 olu\u015fturma imk\u00e2n\u0131 elde etmi\u015f; Irak, Suriye ve L\u00fcbnan \u00fczerinden kurulan bu ba\u011flant\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz mimarisinin omurgas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fkil etmi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z konusu hat, yaln\u0131zca lojistik bir koridor de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 zamanda ideolojik aktar\u0131m, silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme ve vekil g\u00fc\u00e7lerin koordinasyonu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da stratejik bir altyap\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Irak\u2019taki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 milis yap\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle Ha\u015fd-i \u015eabi, Suriye \u00fczerinden Hizbullah ile do\u011frudan temas ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi imk\u00e2n\u0131na kavu\u015fmu\u015f; bu durum s\u00f6z konusu yap\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte etkinlik kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131lar, Irak-Suriye hatt\u0131 sayesinde yaln\u0131zca ulusal de\u011fil, transnasyonel birer akt\u00f6re d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilmi\u015ftir.
\nAncak Suriye\u2019deki y\u00f6netim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu karasal s\u00fcreklili\u011fini fiilen kesintiye u\u011fratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 konumu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak \u00fczerinden Levant\u2019a uzanan n\u00fcfuz hatt\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f; Hizbullah ve Ha\u015fd-i \u015eabi gibi yap\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fme kapasitesini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fme, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki stratejik derinli\u011finin daralmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n
Nitekim Suriye\u2019deki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda Irak\u2019taki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n Esad y\u00f6netimini desteklemek amac\u0131yla harekete ge\u00e7mek istemelerine ra\u011fmen s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 fiilen ge\u00e7ememeleri, bu yeni jeopolitik ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin somut bir g\u00f6stergesidir. Suriye sahas\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, Irak merkezli milislerin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltm\u0131\u015f; bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel etkisini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Suriye\u2019deki y\u00f6netim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 de\u011fil, Irak\u2019taki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri de do\u011frudan etkilemektedir. Yeni \u015eam y\u00f6netimi, yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran\u2019a de\u011fil; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cDireni\u015f Ekseni\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ha\u015fd-i \u015eabi, Hizbullah ve benzeri t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel yap\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131t bir \u00e7izgi \u00fczerinden iktidara gelmi\u015ftir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u015eam\u2019da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n merkez\u00ee bir d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131n kaybedildi\u011fini ve bu kayb\u0131n Irak sahas\u0131nda da hissedilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019deki rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc n\u00fcfuz stratejisini yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f; Irak\u2019taki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lar\u0131n hem co\u011frafi hareketlili\u011fini hem de b\u00f6lgesel iddialar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran yeni bir d\u00f6nemi ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonunun savunmac\u0131 ve daralan bir hatta \u00e7ekildi\u011finin \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir,<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki tercihini SDG gibi yerel ve devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir akt\u00f6rden, \u015eam\u2019daki merkezi y\u00f6netim lehine kayd\u0131rmas\u0131; basit bir m\u00fcttefik de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011fil, \u201cistikrars\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fczerinden dengeleme\u201d stratejisinden \u201ckurumsal stat\u00fcko \u00fczerinden \u00e7evreleme\u201d siyasetine ge\u00e7i\u015ftir. Washington, SDG ile taktiksel d\u00fczeyde \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015far\u0131 \u2014I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in askeri yenilgisi\u2014 elde etmi\u015f olsa da, bu yap\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n transnasyonel n\u00fcfuz mimarisini ve Tahran\u2013Beyrut kara hatt\u0131n\u0131 koparabilecek jeopolitik kapasiteye sahip olmayaca\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130srail a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise \u0130ran dosyas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson evreye\u201d girmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Washington a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Suriye art\u0131k bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f sahas\u0131 de\u011fil; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki n\u00fcfuz mimarisinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fi jeopolitik mente\u015fedir. \u015eam\u2019\u0131n \u201cDireni\u015f Ekseni\u201dnden kopar\u0131lmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n onlarca y\u0131lda in\u015fa etti\u011fi stratejik derinli\u011fi bir anda i\u015flevsiz h\u00e2le getirmi\u015f; bu derinli\u011fi lojistik, askeri ve siyasal a\u00e7\u0131dan stratejik bir k\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011fe s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 Ortado\u011fu genelinde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma ba\u011flam\u0131nda SDG\u2019nin \u00f6nemm olmayca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc SDG, sahada belirli bir alan\u0131 kontrol edebilen i\u015flevsel bir akt\u00f6r olsa da, bir devlet de\u011fildir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u015eam y\u00f6netimi; s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerini, hava sahas\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcmr\u00fckleri ve devlet b\u00fcrokrasisini kontrol eden egemen bir yap\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n lojistik ve askeri ana damarlar\u0131n\u0131 yasal ve fiil\u00ee bi\u00e7imde kesebilecek kapasiteye sahiptir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzu, vekil g\u00fc\u00e7lerden \u00e7ok devletler aras\u0131 bo\u015fluklardan beslenmektedir; ABD bu bo\u015fluklar\u0131 kapatma yoluna gitmi\u015ftir. Bu ba\u011flamda SDG merkezli bir Suriye politikas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ve Arap ba\u015fkentleriyle ili\u015fkilerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal bir p\u00fcr\u00fcz \u00fcretmekteydi. \u015eam\u2019la \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak, Washington\u2019un \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel hatt\u0131 \u2014K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, \u0130srail ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2014 Suriye zemininde daha uyumlu ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bi\u00e7imde konsolide etmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son kertede Washington, SDG ile \u201calan y\u00f6netmeyi\u201d, \u015eam ile ise \u201cd\u00fczen kurmay\u0131\u201d tercih etmi\u015ftir. Bu tercih, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ge\u00e7ici denge aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini; daha sert, daha sade ve sonu\u00e7 almaya odakl\u0131 yeni bir b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczen in\u015fa s\u00fcrecine girildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Suriye\u2019deki bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, bir iktidar de\u011fi\u015fiminin \u00f6tesinde, \u0130ran n\u00fcfuzunun tasfiyesine y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flat\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik yeniden yap\u0131lanman\u0131n en kritik hamlelerinden biridir.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini derinden etkileyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo yaln\u0131zca Suriye ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fildir; L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan Filistin\u2019e, Yemen\u2019den Irak ve \u0130ran\u2019a kadar uzanan geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyada, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 ve zincirleme sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle Suriye\u2019deki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, tekil bir \u00fclke krizi de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde bir yeniden konumlanma s\u00fcreci olarak okunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Suriye\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini derinden etkileyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo yaln\u0131zca Suriye ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fildir; L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan Filistin\u2019e, Yemen\u2019den Irak ve \u0130ran\u2019a kadar uzanan geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyada, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 ve zincirleme sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":19584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"coauthors":[40],"class_list":["post-19516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19516"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19585,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19516\/revisions\/19585"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19516"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=19516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}