{"id":3160,"date":"2018-09-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-09-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com?p=3160&#038;preview=true&#038;preview_id=3160"},"modified":"2018-09-03T20:11:28","modified_gmt":"2018-09-03T17:11:28","slug":"turkiyenin-2060-yilinda-kuresel-dunyadaki-yeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/turkiyenin-2060-yilinda-kuresel-dunyadaki-yeri\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyadaki yeri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3163 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper-1024x640.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"640\" srcset=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper-150x94.jpg 150w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/dunya-haritasi-hd-wallpaper.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Merkezi Paris\u2019te bulunan Ekonomik Kalk\u0131nma ve \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn\u00a0 (OECD)\u00a0 12 Temmuz\u2019da yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 <em>2060 D\u00fcnya Ekonomi Senaryolar\u0131 Raporu<\/em> (TheLongView: ScenariosForThe World Economyto 2060) 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki geli\u015fmeleri kapsayan \u00f6nemli bir belgedir. OECD,\u00a0 bat\u0131l\u0131 anlamda demokrasiyle y\u00f6netilen ve piyasa ekonomisine sahip 36 \u00fclkenin k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin ekonomik, sosyal ve y\u00f6netim sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in ortakla\u015fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 1961 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan bir uluslararas\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi kurulu\u015fudur. OECD Nezdindeki T\u00fcrkiye B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011finde 1985-1990 y\u0131llar\u0131nda g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m d\u00f6nemdeki \u00fcye say\u0131s\u0131 24 idi. T\u00fcrkiye, OECD\u2019nin 20 kurucu \u00fcyesinden biri olarak OECD \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na aktif \u015fekilde kat\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><em>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00f6n verenlerin OECD\u2019nin 53 sayfal\u0131k bu raporunu alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek okumalar\u0131nda yarar vard\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc raporda,\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli tespitler yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>OECD, 46 \u00fclke i\u00e7in uzun vadeli ekonomik projeksiyonlar sunan raporunda, \u00fclkelerin belli varsay\u0131mlar alt\u0131nda 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda nerede olacaklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir senaryo haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0 Rapor; geli\u015fme yolunda olan b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa ekonomilerinde daha iyi y\u00f6neti\u015fim ve e\u011fitim kazan\u0131m\u0131 olmak \u00fczere alternatif senaryolarda yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n potansiyel etkisini g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir referanst\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Rapor\u2019a g\u00f6re i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 reformlar\u0131, sadece hayat standartlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmekle kalmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda istihdam\u0131 artt\u0131rarak n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131yla ilgili mali bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletmeye de yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.\u00a0 Senaryolar, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmaktan ve ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve geli\u015ftirmeye daha fazla harcama yapmaktan kaynaklanan potansiyel ekonomik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. <em>Olumsuz senaryoda ise d\u0131\u015f ticarette liberalle\u015fmeden sapman\u0131n (1990 tarife oranlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f)\u00a0 hayat standartlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fi g\u00f6sterilmektedir<\/em><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 <em>Donald Trump<\/em><strong>&#8216;<\/strong>\u0131n ba\u015fta \u00c7in, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve T\u00fcrkiye olmak \u00fczere \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkeye kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerine bu \u00fclkelerin de vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla cevap vermesi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi tarife sava\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ortam haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini artt\u0131rarak korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f d\u00fcnya ekonomisini yava\u015flatacak, bundan t\u00fcm taraflar zarar g\u00f6rerek refah kayb\u0131na u\u011frayacaklard\u0131r. Rapor\u2019da o d\u00f6nem uygulanan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin k\u00fcresel ekonomiye katk\u0131 sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi ve korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin tekrar y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi durumunda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi zarar g\u00f6recektir.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye, bu durumdan an fazla etkilenen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. Serbest ticaretten geri ad\u0131m at\u0131l\u0131p, 1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarife oranlar\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fcrse, uzun d\u00f6nemde hayat standartlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 oran\u0131nda azalacakt\u0131r. Bu durumdan en \u00e7ok etkilenen \u00fclkelerde standart y\u00fczde 15 &#8211; 25 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n<p><em>2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar milli gelire olumlu etkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan serbest ticaretten en fazla yararlanacak \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye ilk,\u00a0 \u0130srail ve G\u00fcney Kore ise ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131radad\u0131r.<\/em> Korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerden etkilenen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiyede vard\u0131r. Temel senaryoya g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de milli gelir 2018 &#8211; 2030 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3,6, 2030 &#8211; 2060 d\u00f6neminde ise y\u00fczde <em>2,5<\/em> oran\u0131nda artacakt\u0131r.\u00a0\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak reformlar, hayat standartlar\u0131nda geli\u015fme sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tablo:1 35 OECD \u00dclkesinde 2007- 2018 ve 2030- 2060 D\u00f6nemindeki Ekonomik Geli\u015fmeler (*)<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3169 size-medium_large\" src=\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809-768x552.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"552\" srcset=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809-768x552.jpg 768w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809-150x108.jpg 150w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809-300x216.jpg 300w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809-1024x736.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_192809.jpg 1342w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>(*) Litvanya 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda OECD\u2019ye \u00fcye oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tabloda yer almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Kaynak: TheLongView: ScenariosForThe World Economyto 2060, s. 15.<\/p>\n<p>OECD\u2019nin tahminleri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hedefleri aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar vard\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2023 hedefleri aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 ekonomisi i\u00e7inde olmak,500 milyar dolar ihracata ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelirin 25 bin dolaraula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan 30 A\u011fustos Zafer Bayram\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131nda, <em>&#8220;T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2023 hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131, bizimle birlikte t\u00fcm co\u011frafyam\u0131z\u0131n gelece\u011fine y\u00f6n verecektir&#8221;<\/em>\u00a0 demi\u015ftir ama h\u00fck\u00fcmet programlar\u0131nda hedeflerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. 2023 hedefleri Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan taraf\u0131ndan 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<ol start=\"60\">\n<li>H\u00fck\u00fcmet Program\u0131\u2019nda 2 defa ge\u00e7en hedefler, 61. H\u00fck\u00fcmet Program\u0131\u2019nda 27,62. H\u00fck\u00fcmet Program\u0131\u2019nda57,64. H\u00fck\u00fcmet Program\u0131\u2019nda 10,65. H\u00fck\u00fcmet Program\u0131\u2019nda 8 defa yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmet programlar\u0131nda hedeflere ula\u015fma konusu sonlara do\u011fru belirgin \u015fekilde azalmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ilk 10 ekonomisi i\u00e7inde yer almam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. 2023&#8217;te T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin milli gelirinin <em>2 trilyon dolar<\/em>, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin ise <em>1 trilyon dolar\u0131<\/em> bulmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015ftir. 2017&#8217;de toplam <em>157 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde ihracat, 233,7 milyar dolar ithalat yapan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 1 trilyon dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret hedefine ula\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tahmin edildi\u011fi gibi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir 25 bin dolar olacakt\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir 10.540,6 dolard\u0131r. (<a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD\">https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD<\/a>) \u00a0Uluslararas\u0131 Pata Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) Nisan 2018 tahminine g\u00f6re ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir ise 11,110 dolard\u0131r. (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/datamapper\/NGDPDPC@WEO\/OEMDC\/ADVEC\/WEOWORLD\">http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/datamapper\/NGDPDPC@WEO\/OEMDC\/ADVEC\/WEOWORLD<\/a>)\u00a0\u00a0 <em>Yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir ancak 14.083,9 dolara ula\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/em> (<a href=\"https:\/\/knoema.com\/pjeqzh\/gdp-per-capita-by-country-statistics-from-imf-1980-2023?country=Turkey\">https:\/\/knoema.com\/pjeqzh\/gdp-per-capita-by-country-statistics-from-imf-1980-2023?country=Turkey<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tablo: 2 1980-2023 D\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131na D\u00fc\u015fen Milli Gelir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3165 size-medium_large\" src=\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_193044-768x717.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"717\" srcset=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_193044-768x717.jpg 768w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_193044-150x140.jpg 150w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_193044-300x280.jpg 300w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180903_193044.jpg 905w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak: https:\/\/knoema.com\/pjeqzh\/gdp-per-capita-by-country-statistics-from-imf-1980-2023?country=Turkey<\/p>\n<p><em>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2023 hedeflerine ula\u015famamas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sebebi e\u011fitim kalitesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131d\u0131r. 137 \u00fclke baz al\u0131narak haz\u0131rlanan 2018 raporuna g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye 99\u2019ncu s\u0131rada yer al\u0131rken, listenin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclke \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019dir. <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Ajans Press\u2019in D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu (WEF) <em>E\u011fitim Kalitesi 2018<\/em> raporundaki verilere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye e\u011fitim kalitesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan 137 \u00fclke aras\u0131ndan 99\u2019ncu s\u0131radad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, e\u011fitim sistemi kalitesinde 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 2 basamak y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen listenin sonlar\u0131ndad\u0131r.Katar, Malezya, Endonezya, \u0130ran ve Pakistan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/Bm42kZVlMyH\/\">https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/Bm42kZVlMyH\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2017-2019 y\u0131l\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da ihracat art\u0131\u015f hedefi olan ortalama y\u00fczde 10,5. ihracat art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 yakalayabilirsek ancak 2029 y\u0131l\u0131nda hedefe ula\u015fabiliriz.2017-2019 y\u0131l\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k hedef konulmu\u015ftur. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda hedef 10,930 dolard\u0131r. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hedefi y\u00fczde 6 olursa, ancak \u00a02034 y\u0131ll\u0131nda 25,000 dolar hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 (WB) T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,5, gelecek iki y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Banka\u2019n\u0131n <em>K\u00fcresel Ekonomik Beklentiler<\/em> Haziran 2018 raporunda da d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l ge\u00e7en y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmininde bulunmu\u015ftur. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF<strong>) <\/strong><em>D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/em> Nisan 2018 raporunu <em>Konjonkt\u00fcrel \u0130yile\u015fme Yap\u0131sal De\u011fi\u015fim <\/em>ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f,\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 4,4&#8217;e y\u00fckseltirken, 2019 beklentisini y\u00fczde 4\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019s\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda, geli\u015fme yolunda olan \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin azalmas\u0131yla ortalama y\u00fczde 3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fecek,\u00a0 <em>\u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n etkisiyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin merkezi Asya\u2019ya kayacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 \u00dclkelerin yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi durumunda uzun d\u00f6nemde hayat standartlar\u0131 artacakt\u0131r.<\/em> OECD \u00fclkelerinde yap\u0131sal reformlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda gelecek 40 y\u0131lda hayat standartlar\u0131 ancak GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131ny\u00fczde 1,5-2 aras\u0131nda artacakt\u0131r. Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin emeklilik ya\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi sonucunda\u00a0 OECD&#8217;deki ya\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n toplam istihdam oran\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 5 puan y\u00fckselecektir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3161 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/1002.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"894\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/1002.jpg 894w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/1002-150x72.jpg 150w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/1002-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/1002-768x369.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 894px) 100vw, 894px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>BRICS \u00fclkelerinin\u00a0 (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, \u00c7in ve G\u00fcney Afrika Cumhuriyeti)\u00a0 son y\u0131llardaki y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya ula\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fecektir. <em>Hindistan ve \u00c7in 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 20-25, OECD \u00fclkeleri ise y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda pay sahibi olacakt\u0131r.<\/em> Demografik de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin hayat standartlar\u0131nda ek y\u00fck getirecek, bu da \u00fclkelerin vergileri art\u0131rmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda \u00fclkeler kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131rken sa\u011fl\u0131k ve emeklilik harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek i\u00e7in vergi gelirleriniGSY\u0130H\u2019ya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6,5 puan art\u0131rmak zorunda kalacaklard\u0131r. BRICS \u00fclkeleri, y\u00f6netim ve e\u011fitim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan OECD standartlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamalar\u0131 durumunda 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar tahmin edilen senaryonun d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak,\u00a0 hayat standartlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 30-50 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckseltebileceklerdir.<\/p>\n<p>OECD\u2019nin belirledi\u011fi ve \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerinin izledi\u011fi istihdam politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi, 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00f6zellikle gen\u00e7 ve kad\u0131nlar\u0131n da kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla istihdam\u0131n y\u00fczde 6,5 puan artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecektir. OECD \u00fclkelerinde kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda, 2060\u2019a kadar hayat standartlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 (baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 6-9) artmas\u0131 sa\u011flanabilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Rapor\u2019daki \u00f6nemli tespitler \u015f\u00f6yledir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinden daha \u00e7ok geli\u015fmeyolunda olan \u00fclkeler olumsuz etkilenecektir. OECD \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinden en az etkilenecek \u00fclkeler Norve\u00e7 ve Kolombiya\u2019d\u0131r. G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini artt\u0131ran ABD\u2019nin kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,8 <em>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kayb\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 3,3 olacakt\u0131r<\/em>. Rapor\u2019da OECD \u00fclkelerinin y\u00fczde 6 kay\u0131p ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>BRICS \u00fclkeleri, tarife sava\u015flar\u0131ndan en fazla zarar g\u00f6recek olan gruptur. Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, \u00c7in ve G\u00fcney Afrika&#8217;n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu <em>BRICS&#8217;in 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 18&#8217;i bulacakt\u0131r.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Kurumsal vesiyasi de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel senaryoya g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada reel GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturmaya devam eden geli\u015fme yolunda olan <em>ekonomilerdeki durgunluk sebebiyle 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3&#8217;ten y\u00fczde 2&#8217;ye gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>D\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi Asya&#8217;ya do\u011fru kayd\u0131k\u00e7a, Hindistan ve \u00c7in d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminden daha fazla pay alacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Hayat standartlar\u0131(ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen reel GSY\u0130H) 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde artmaya devam ederek geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin seviyesine yakla\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren \u00fclkelerde ve Do\u011fu Avrupa ekonomilerinde hayat standartlar\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011findeki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. BRIICS ve baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli OECD \u00fclkelerindeki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSY\u0130H, 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD&#8217;nin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Daha fazla sa\u011fl\u0131k harcamalar\u0131 demografik de\u011fi\u015fimlerden kaynaklanan mali bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131larken, kamu bor\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcncel seviyelerde tutmak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye<em> d\u00e2hil orta gelire sahip OECD \u00fclkelerinin 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar GSY\u0130H&#8217;n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131 kadar kayna\u011fa ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 vard\u0131r.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel tasarruf, son y\u0131llarda reel faiz oranlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam etmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>BRIICS, y\u00f6netim kalitesini iyile\u015ftirmeye ve e\u011fitime \u00f6nem vermektedir.<\/li>\n<li>2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ortalama OECD seviyelerini yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda BRIICS\u2019dekihayat standartlar\u0131, 2060 y\u0131l\u0131 temel senaryoya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 30-50 oran\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>OECD \u00fclkeleri \u00fcretim yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 rekabete elveri\u015fli duruma getirmek i\u00e7in 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar reform yaparsa, hayat standard\u0131 y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselecektir.<\/li>\n<li>OECD \u00fclkelerinde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in reform yap\u0131lmas\u0131; daha y\u00fcksek gen\u00e7 ve kad\u0131n istihdam\u0131 sa\u011flanarak toplam istihdam oran\u0131n\u0131 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 6 puan, 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 10 art\u0131racak, ya\u015flanma ile ilgili gelecek mali bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Emeklilik ya\u015f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, OECD&#8217;deki ya\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n toplam istihdam oran\u0131n\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 5 puan ve hayat standartlar\u0131n\u0131 da 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 oran\u0131nda art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>OECD \u00fclkelerindeki Ar-Geharcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 5 lider \u00fclkenin seviyesine y\u00fckseltilmesi durumunda hayat standartlar\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 6 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselecektir.<\/li>\n<li>OECD \u00fclkelerinde kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n GSY\u0130H&#8217;n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131, hayat standartlar\u0131n\u0131 2060 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde ise y\u00fczde 6-9 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>1990&#8217;lar\u0131n ortalama tarife oranlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fcr ve ticaret serbestle\u015ftirilmesi konusunda geri ad\u0131m at\u0131l\u0131rsa, uzun d\u00f6nemde hayat standartlar\u0131 <em>d\u00fcnya genelinde y\u00fczde 14, en \u00e7ok etkilenen \u00fclkelerde ise y\u00fczde 15-25 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2060 D\u00fcnya Ekonomi Senaryolar\u0131 Raporu\u2019ndan 1 g\u00fcn sonra <em>OECDT\u00fcrkiye Raporu13 Temmuz 2018<\/em> tarihinde yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0 (EconomicSurvey of Turkey 2018 http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/turkey\/economic-survey-turkey.htm) http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/eco\/surveys\/Turkey-2018-OECD-economic-survey-overview.pdf)<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSY\u0130H, daha geli\u015fmi\u015f OECD ekonomilerini yakalamaya devam etmi\u015ftir. G\u00fcneydo\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerginlikler ve 2016\u2019daki darbe giri\u015fimi de d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi olumsuz \u015foka ra\u011fmen, GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2010-2017&#8217;ye g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 7&#8217;dir. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fi, tar\u0131mda kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 faaliyetlerin yayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmendi\u011fer tar\u0131m a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131OECD \u00fclkelerinden daha fazlad\u0131r. Bu durum; dinamik, ancak par\u00e7al\u0131 bir tar\u0131msal yap\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun istihdam oran\u0131 OECD&#8217;deki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oran olmaya devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u0130\u00e7 talebe ve d\u0131\u015f tasarruflara a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131ktan kaynaklanan cari i\u015flemler dengesizli\u011fi d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekte, risk primini zorla\u015ft\u0131rmakta ve d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar bor\u00e7lan\u0131larak finanse edilmektedir.<\/em> \u00a0Fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve hedeflenin \u00e7ok \u00fczerindedir.\u00a0 Kamu y\u00f6netim kalitesi,\u00a0 d\u00f6viz kurundaki art\u0131\u015flar ve ekonomik politikalar\u0131n gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik belirsizlikleri\u00a0 riski\u00a0 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. <em>K\u0131r\u0131lgan ortamdaki g\u00fcvenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in tutarl\u0131 mali ve parasal politikalar uygulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde en \u00f6nemli darbo\u011fazlardan biri olan cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na raporda \u00f6zellikle vurgu yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em> A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekilden de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi gibi 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile 2017\u2019deki cari a\u00e7\u0131k aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli farkl\u0131l\u0131k vard\u0131r. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum,\u00a0 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesinin de \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tablo: 3 T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisinde GSMH\u2019n\u0131n Y\u00fczdesi Olarak\u00a0 Cari A\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3167 size-medium_large\" src=\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office-768x444.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office-768x444.jpg 768w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office-150x87.jpg 150w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office-300x173.jpg 300w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office-1024x592.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Screenshot_20180903-193011_Polaris-Office.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak: OECD<\/p>\n<p>OECD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik tespitleri \u015f\u00f6yledir:<\/p>\n<p><em>B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr ve hayat \u015fartlar\u0131nda iyile\u015fme olmu\u015ftur.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, olumsuz \u015foklara ra\u011fmen son iki y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li>2010&#8217;larda h\u0131zlanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda istihdam yarat\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle az geli\u015fmi\u015f b\u00f6lgelerde refah\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Makro ekonomik politikalar d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hale gelmi\u015ftir. <\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki darbe giri\u015fimi makro ekonomik politikalar\u0131 olumsuz etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Ekonomiyi yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak ve sosyal uyumu geli\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in i\u015fletmelerin modernizasyonu gereklidir.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S\u00fcrekli b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in ihracat art\u0131rtmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7ok say\u0131daorta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli firma i\u015f hayat\u0131na kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunlar te\u015fvik edilmelidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u00d6zelle\u015ftirme ve dijitalle\u015fme i\u015fletme performans\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in anahtard\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>H\u00fck\u00fcmet, uluslararas\u0131 iyi uygulamalara (goodpractice)\u00a0 uyum i\u00e7in taahh\u00fctte bulunmu\u015ftur. Kapsaml\u0131 bir e\u011fitim, iyi\u00a0 y\u00f6neti\u015fim ve\u00a0 yap\u0131sal reformlar farkl\u0131\u00a0 gruplar aras\u0131ndaki\u00a0 yak\u0131nla\u015fmay\u0131 ve sosyal uyumu te\u015fvik edecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>OECD\u2019nin 2060 D\u00fcnya Ekonomi Senaryolar\u0131 Raporu\u2019dan \u00f6nce 1 Nisan\u2019da yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 <em>Daha \u0130yi Hayat Endeksi<\/em>, (Better Life Index, http:\/\/www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org\/countries\/turkey\/)\u00a0 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 yukar\u0131daki raporlar\u0131tamamlar niteliktedir.\u00a0 OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler ile Rusya, Brezilya ve G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n dahil edildi\u011fi 38 \u00fclkeye ili\u015fkin verilerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Endeks\u2019te 9,3 puanla Hollanda ilk s\u0131rada bulunurken, 9 puanla Danimarka ikinci, 8,9 puanla Fransa \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc, \u0130spanya 8,8 puan ile d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc, Bel\u00e7ika ise 8,6 puanla be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><em>Endekste yer alan \u201chayat\u0131n\u0131zdan memnuniyet\u201d anketinde T\u00fcrkiye sondan 4\u2019nc\u00fc s\u0131radad\u0131r.\u00a0 OECD ortalamas\u0131 10 \u00fczerinden 6,5 puan oldu\u011fu halde T\u00fcrkiye 5,5 puanla en k\u00f6t\u00fc durumdaki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/em>\u00a0 Norve\u00e7&#8217;in 7,6 puanile halk\u0131 hayat\u0131ndan en memnun \u00fclke oldu\u011fu listede T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin arkas\u0131ndaki \u00fclkeler Macaristan, Yunanistan ve Portekiz\u2019dir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OECD&#8217;nin 2060 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomi raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi neler beklemektedir? ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump&#8217;\u0131n i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin de oldu\u011fu baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar bu rapor kapsam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilirse nelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131l\u0131r?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[58,59,63,2,66,67],"tags":[],"coauthors":[6],"class_list":["post-3160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ab","category-abd","category-ekonomi","category-genel","category-siyaset-tarih","category-tehditler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3160\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3160"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=3160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}