{"id":3388,"date":"2018-09-28T19:30:22","date_gmt":"2018-09-28T16:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/?p=3388"},"modified":"2018-09-28T16:04:22","modified_gmt":"2018-09-28T13:04:22","slug":"yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Ekonomi Program Hedefleri ile IMF Hedefleri Aras\u0131ndaki Fark\u0131n Sebebi Nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat ALBAYRAK\u2019\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n (2016-2018) haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131nda g\u00f6rev\u00a0 alanlar\u0131 ve bu tahmini yapanlar\u0131 sorgulamas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p><\/div>\n

Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak, Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131<\/em> (YEP) 20 Eyl\u00fcl<\/em>\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece Orta Vadeli Program<\/em>\u2019\u0131n (OVP)\u00a0\u00a0 ad\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ferek Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k program 2019-2021<\/em> y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsamaktad\u0131r. YEP’in ana temas\u0131 dengelenme, disiplin ve de\u011fi\u015fimdir<\/em>. Kamu ve \u00f6zel kesim i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi art\u0131racak bir yol haritas\u0131 niteli\u011findedir. \u00c7e\u015fitli alanlarda birbirleriyle tutarl\u0131 bir ama\u00e7, politika ve \u00f6ncelikler seti sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Makro politikalar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, temel geli\u015fme eksenlerini ve ana sekt\u00f6rleri kapsamaktad\u0131r. Uzun vadeli ama\u00e7lara katk\u0131da bulunacak \u015fekilde, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131lacak \u00a0\u00f6ncelikler belirlenmi\u015ftir. Uygulamalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve genel \u015fartlardaki de\u011fi\u015fmeler dikkate al\u0131narak her y\u0131l yenilenecektir.<\/p>\n

OVP, (2016-2018<\/em>) 5018 say\u0131l\u0131 Yasa\u2019n\u0131n 16\u2019nc\u0131 maddesi uyar\u0131nca, Bakanlar Kurulu\u2019nun en ge\u00e7 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131 sonuna kadar makro politikalar\u0131, ilkeleri, hedef ve g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011findeki temel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri de kapsayacak \u015fekilde haz\u0131rlanan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k, kamu ve \u00f6zel kesim i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi art\u0131racak bir yol haritas\u0131 niteli\u011findeydi. YEP ise 2019-2021<\/em> y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 kapsayan 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir programd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

YEP ile OVP\u2019nin\u00a0 hedefleri\u00a0 aras\u0131nda \u00a0\u00f6nemli farkl\u0131l\u0131klar \u00a0vard\u0131r. Bu durum \u00a0T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde hedeflerin tutturulmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131\u00a0 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/em> \u00a0Her 3 ayda bir \u00a0Almanya\u2019dan \u015fahs\u0131ma g\u00f6nderilen \u201cQ u e s t i o n n a i r e WES Survey July 2018: Data requested for Turkey Code-No: 16001852 – 5032.8059.01,\u00a0 Ifo World Economic Survey, Nothhaft, Jasmin [Nothhaft@ifo.de] <\/em>\u00a0sualnamesini \u00a0\u00a0doldururken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ekonomik geli\u015fmeleri \u00a0\u00e7ok dikkatli \u00a0izlemekteyim.<\/p>\n

OVP ile YEP aras\u0131nda \u00a0k\u0131sa s\u00fcrelerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00a0farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u00a0 sebebi, ya tahminler\u00a0 \u00e7e\u015fitli\u00a0 nedenlerle \u00e7ok olumlu senaryolara g\u00f6re yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r ya da tahminleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenler bir hata yapmaktad\u0131rlar. E\u011fer son \u015f\u0131k ge\u00e7erli ise say\u0131n Bakan\u2019\u0131n OVP\u2019\u0131n haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131nda g\u00f6rev \u00a0alanlar\u0131 ve bu tahmini yapanlar\u0131 sorgulamas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

OVP\u2019da GSYH art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00a0y\u00fczde 5 olarak hedeflenmi\u015ftir. YEP\u2019da 2019 y\u0131l\u0131\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi \u00a02,3<\/em>‘e \u00e7ekilmi\u015f, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyon hedefi ise y\u00fczde 15,9<\/em>, 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9,8<\/em>,\u00a0 <\/strong>2021 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6,0<\/em> \u00a0olarak g\u00fcncellenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma\u00a0 Kurulu\u015fu (OECD) nezdindeki B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011finde 5 y\u0131l g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f biri olarak \u00a0OECD\u2019nin 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2018\u2019<\/em>de \u00a0<\/strong>2018 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 5,1’den y\u00fczde 3,2’ye, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4,9’dan y\u00fczde 0,5’e \u00e7ekti\u011fini hat\u0131rlamakta fayda vard\u0131r. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

OECD’nin raporunda; T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki bask\u0131 ile banka ve \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lar\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131l\u0131rken,<\/em> “Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile artan faizlerin g\u00fcven ortam\u0131na yapaca\u011f\u0131 etkiye ve bunun da t\u00fcketimin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131”<\/em> uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan \u00a02 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019<\/em>de \u00a0Bi\u015fkek’te T\u00fcrkiye-K\u0131rg\u0131zistan \u0130\u015f Forumunda “Malum kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 var ya, bunlar\u0131n her ad\u0131m\u0131 politiktir\u201d<\/em> demi\u015ftir. Daha \u00f6nce 31 A\u011fustos\u2019ta\u00a0 \u00a0Bal\u0131kesir’de de “<\/em><\/strong>Dolarlarla molarlarla bu milleti asla \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcremezler. Yok kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00f6ylemi\u015f b\u00f6yle s\u00f6ylemi\u015f. B\u0131rak\u0131n o sahtekarlar\u0131\u201d <\/strong><\/em>\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftur. “\u015eu anda Bat\u0131’n\u0131n ekonomik tehdidi, bize ekonomik sava\u015f ilan etmesi, hi\u00e7birisi bizi sindiremez”<\/em> diyen Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00a0“Onlar\u0131n dolarlar\u0131 varsa bizim Allah’\u0131m\u0131z var”<\/em> ifadesini kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n su\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan biri olan Fitch, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,8,<\/em> 2019 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,9<\/em> ve 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,9<\/em> olarak g\u00fcncellemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Fitch Ratings, 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de<\/em> yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 raporda\u00a0 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131yla\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve yeniden \u00a0istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00a0zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00a0(Fitch cuts Turkey growth forecast and warns of downside risks)<\/a>\u00a0Fitch, 2018-2020 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve ciddi ve yayg\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler beklediklerini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

Fitch’e g\u00f6re temel senaryodaki riskler \u015funlard\u0131r: Yanl\u0131\u015f siyasi ad\u0131mlar, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mali stresinin y\u00fckselmesi, jeopolitik gerginlikler ve olas\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131.<\/em> Fitch Ratings, 21 Eyl\u00fcl<\/em>\u2019de de T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2018 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 20<\/em>‘ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015f, \u00a0“T\u00fcrkiye’nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni Orta Vadeli Ekonomik Program, kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olunan zorluklar\u0131n bilincinde<\/a>“<\/em> tespitini yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunun Nisan 2018 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131\u00a0Konjonkt\u00fcrel \u0130yile\u015fme, Yap\u0131sal De\u011fi\u015fim \u00a0(World Economic Outlook, Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change)<\/a> ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 4,4<\/em>‘e y\u00fckseltirken, 2019 beklentisini y\u00fczde 4\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ifadesiyle \u00fclkede kriz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, bu kadar k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede hedeflerde b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma olmamal\u0131d\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\n

Be\u015ftepe’deki Gaziler G\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00f6reni’nde konu\u015fan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, “Kriz filan yok, bunlar\u0131n hepsi manip\u00fclasyon”<\/em> \u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Ko\u00e7 Holding Ba\u015fkan Vekili Ali Ko\u00e7<\/em> \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:\u00a0 \u201c\u015eu an ekonomik kriz var diyecek bir durum olmayabilir ancak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bor\u00e7 yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda endi\u015felenmemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.\u201d<\/em> Adalet Bakan\u0131 Abd\u00fclhamit G\u00fcl\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye’nin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n rasyonel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek “T\u00fcrkiye’de ya\u015fanan bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n daha ziyade rasyonel de\u011fil psikolojik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrkiye’nin ekonomisi \u00e7ok sa\u011flamd\u0131r ve gelece\u011fimiz ayd\u0131nl\u0131kt\u0131r”<\/em> demi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

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Fitch Ratings, 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 raporda\u00a0 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131yla\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve yeniden\u00a0 istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0 zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p><\/div>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015f\u00fcphesiz Kas\u0131m 2000 ve \u015eubat 2011 krizlerine benzer bir kriz yoktur<\/em> (S. R\u0131dvan Karluk, T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi, 2014, 13. Bask\u0131, s. 547-576)\u00a0 ama \u00a0\u201cKriz filan yok, bunlar\u0131n hepsi manip\u00fclasyon” <\/em>ya da \u201cpsikolojiktir\u201d <\/em>demek do\u011fru de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, A\u011fustos 2013\u2019te 1,90<\/em> seviyelerinde olan dolar kuru bug\u00fcn \u00a06,20<\/em>\u2019lere ula\u015farak geli\u015fme yolunda \u00a0olan \u00fclke paralar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden para birimi olmu\u015ftur.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bakan Albayrak 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in kamuda 60 milyar TL<\/em> tasarruf \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, 16 milyar TL gelir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 elde edilece\u011fini, b\u00f6ylece 76 milyar liral\u0131k kaynak yarat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 60 milyar TL\u2019lik kamu tasarruflar\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir ama ne t\u00fcr tedbirlerle tasarruf edilece\u011fi belirsizdir. Sadece makam arabalar\u0131n\u0131n elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131yla bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tasarruf yap\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Albayrak, t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel ekonomik zorluklara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye’nin t\u00fcm hedeflerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fcmesini sa\u011flayacak bir ekonomik program haz\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “Bu ama\u00e7la program\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131 olarak belirledik”<\/em>\u00a0 <\/strong>demi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yol haritas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olsa da enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlikle m\u00fccadele konusunda somut ad\u0131m ve \u00f6nerinin bulunmamas\u0131 bir eksikliktir. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

OECD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2019<\/em> y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,5<\/em>\u2019lik bir tahmin a\u00e7\u0131klarken, h\u00fck\u00fcmet program\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 2,3<\/em> olmas\u0131 iyimser olup, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zordur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, Albayrak\u2019\u0131n program\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 saatlerde OECD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr: 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminini y\u00fczde 5,1’den y\u00fczde 3,2<\/em>‘ye, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4,9’dan<\/em> y\u00fczde 0,5’e<\/em> \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Yay\u0131nlanan raporda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki bask\u0131 ile banka ve \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00a0sebebiyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumuna da yer verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcndeki \u201ccrony capitalism\u201d<\/em>inin (e\u015f dost kapitalizmi<\/em>) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son y\u0131llarda etkinle\u015fmesi, ekonomik istikrar\u0131 olumsuz etkilemi\u015ftir. \u00a0Terim, i\u015fadam\u0131 ile devlet g\u00f6revlileri ve siyasiler aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiye dayanan ekonomiyi tan\u0131mlar ve bir \u00e7e\u015fit nepotizmdir<\/em>. <\/strong>\u00d6zellikle i\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131nda akrabalara y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan kay\u0131rmalar\u0131 ifade eder. \u0130n\u015faat, maden arama gibi ruhsatlar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131, devlet kredileri, \u00f6zel vergi avantajlar\u0131 veya \u00f6zel devlet m\u00fcdahaleleri bi\u00e7iminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re e\u015f dost kapitalizmi endeksinde 22 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye 8\u2019nci s\u0131radad\u0131r<\/em>. \u0130lk s\u0131ralarda Rusya, Malezya ve Filipinler yer almaktad\u0131r. Almanya ise son s\u0131radad\u0131r. \u00a0A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekilde koyu renkler e\u015f dost kapitalizmini g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

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\u015eekil 1: E\u015f Dost Kapitalizmi<\/em><\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0Forbes; IMF; The Economist<\/a><\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 625 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00a0\u00a0YEP\u2019a ra\u011fmen, dolar kurunun 6 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na gerilememesi, YEP\u2019a g\u00fcven a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir g\u00f6stergedir<\/em>. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin Eyl\u00fcl-Ekim aylar\u0131n 14 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesi bulundu\u011fu i\u00e7in dolar kurunda bir d\u00fc\u015fme \u00a0en\u00a0 az\u0131ndan \u00a0Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

OVP\u2019da \u00a0\u00fcretken alanlara y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla desteklenen, daha \u00e7ok yurt i\u00e7i tasarruflarla finanse edilen, verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejisiyle GSYH art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 son iki y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5<\/em> olarak hedeflenmi\u015ftir. OVP\u2019nin\u00a0 amac\u0131; makroekonomik istikrar\u0131n korundu\u011fu, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve enflasyonun a\u015famal\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda yap\u0131sal reformlar yoluyla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rmakt\u0131r. T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7,5\u2019e<\/em> gerileyece\u011fi, d\u00f6nem sonunda ise (2018) y\u00fczde 5<\/em> olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Bu hedefin tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan YEP\u2019da\u00a0 T\u00dcFE y\u0131l sonu de\u011fi\u015fmesi y\u00fczde 20,8<\/em> olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00a0Enflasyonda gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ve 2020\u2019nin hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. Fakat 2021\u2019in y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131 \u00e7ok iddial\u0131 olup, enflasyonun 2019-2021 d\u00f6neminde \u00a0tek haneye indirilmesine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in YEP\u2019daki \u00a0\u00a0hedeflere taviz verilmeden ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Aksi halde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni bir YEP haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 zorunlulu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekilde IMF, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi enflasyon oran\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 25 ve \u00fczerindeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6stermi\u015f, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyonun y\u00fczde 10-25 aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulunmu\u015ftur. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130ran, Cezayir ve Venez\u00fcella d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede \u00e7ift rakaml\u0131 enflasyon yoktur. D\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,3, Avrupa ortalamas\u0131 2,5, Kuzey Amerika ortalamas\u0131 ise 2,2\u2019dir.<\/em><\/p>\n

Enflasyon, ekonomik krizin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6stergelerinden\u00a0 biridir<\/em>. E\u011fer bir ekonomide y\u00fczde 20,8 oran\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsa,\u00a0 ekonomide kriz yoktur demek iktisat bilimini yok saymakt\u0131r. Ekonomilerde fiyat istikrar\u0131, ekonomik istikrar\u0131n temelidir<\/em>.<\/strong> Bu temel \u00e7\u00f6kerse ekonomik istikrar sa\u011flanamaz. (S. R\u0131dvan Karluk, T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi,13. Bask\u0131, s. 473) Enflasyonun ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclkede gelecek tahmini yapmak zor oldu\u011fundan dolay\u0131 \u00fcreticiler \u00fcretimlerini azalt\u0131r, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdururlar. Bunlar\u0131n sonucunda da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fer, enflasyon herkes taraf\u0131ndan hissedilebilir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u015eekil:2 \u00dclkelerin 2018<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0 Enflasyon Oranlar\u0131\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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\u015eekil: 3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00dclkelerin 2023\u00a0 Enflasyon\u00a0\u00a0 Oranlar\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/datamapper\/PCPIPCH@WEO\/WEOWORLD\/VEN<\/a><\/p>\n

Kriz olmayan, ekonomik istikrar\u0131n sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede hedeflerden k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli sapmalar olmaz. YEP hedefleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. \u00a02023 y\u0131l\u0131nda <\/em>d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 ekonomisi i\u00e7inde olmak, 500 milyar dolar ihracat ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelirin 25 bin dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131k bir hayal olmu\u015ftur.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gelecek y\u0131l dolar kuru 5,60 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Tahminin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in 6.20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyreden dolar kurunun gelecek y\u0131l a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi gerekmektedir. YEP\u2019a g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n bu y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 4,90\u2019da olu\u015fmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015ftir ama bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u015farta ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em> Dolar\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadarki ortalamas\u0131 4,51\u2019tir. \u00a0Dolar y\u0131lsonuna kadar ortalama 5.86 seviyesinde olu\u015fursa 4,90 hedefine ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. 5.86\u2019l\u0131k ortalama kur tutturulunca 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na 5,86 olarak girilecektir.<\/p>\n

2019\u2019un hedefi 5,60\u2019a ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131nca bu y\u0131lda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 15,9 artaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00a02019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00a0TL\u2019nin \u00a0dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 gibi \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kar. Acaba bu durumu YEP haz\u0131rlayanlar hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmediler mi?\u00a0 Dolar kurundaki hedefler tutturulmazsa, bu durum YEP\u2019daki di\u011fer hedeflere de (dolar baz\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir, GSYH v.b.)\u00a0 ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Cari fiyatlarla GSYH OVP\u2019da 2018\u2019de 854<\/em> milyar dolar iken bu rakam YEP\u2019da 763<\/em> milyar dolara \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. Aradaki fark 91<\/em> milyar dolard\u0131r. Bu,\u00a0 OVP\u2019daki hedeften \u00f6nemli bir sapmay\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

YEP\u2019da 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 10,602 <\/em>dolar olan ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH\u2019n\u0131n<\/em> 2018\u2019de 9,385<\/em> dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH tahmini 2019\u2019da 9,647,<\/em> 2020\u2019de 10,292<\/em>, 2021\u2019de ise 10,973<\/em> dolar olacakt\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 10 bin dolar olan orta gelir tuza\u011f\u0131ndan kurtulamayacakt\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 D\u00fcnya Kalk\u0131nma Raporu\u2019nda (s. 389)\u00a0 ekonomiler ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama gelir a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 5 grupta toplanmaktad\u0131r: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ekonomiler 1,005 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131, <\/em><\/strong>orta gelirli ekonomiler 1,006-12,275<\/em> dolar aras\u0131, alt orta gelirli ekonomiler 1,006-3.975 dolar aras\u0131, \u00fcst orta gelirli ekonomiler 3.976-12.275 dolar aras\u0131, y\u00fcksek gelirli ekonomiler 12,276 dolar ve \u00fczeri. T\u00fcrkiye, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen 9,385 (YEP) dolarl\u0131k ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k geliriyle orta gelirli ekonomiler aras\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kamayacakt\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH 3 trilyon 107 milyar TL (851<\/em> milyar dolar) olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f,\u00a0 ortalama dolar kuru 3,65 TL olmu\u015ftur. YEP\u2019te bu y\u0131l GSYH\u2019n\u0131n TL baz\u0131nda 3 trilyon 741 milyar, dolar baz\u0131nda 763<\/em> milyar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama dolar kuru 4,90<\/em> TL olarak tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Dolar kuru bu y\u0131l Ocak-Nisan d\u00f6neminde 3,70-4,00 TL, May\u0131s- Temmuz d\u00f6neminde 4,00-4,90 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyrettikten sonra A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana 5,00-6,90 aras\u0131nda dalgalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. YEP\u2019teki tahminlerde, dolar kurunun y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 esas al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu tahminler ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser varsay\u0131mlara dayanmaktad\u0131r. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama dolar kuru bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fartlarda \u00a05,60 seviyesinin \u00a0\u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tablo:1 OVP\u2019da Temel Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckler<\/em><\/p>\n

Kaynak: OVP<\/p>\n

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Tablo: 2 YEP\u2019da Temel Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckler<\/em><\/p>\n

Kaynak: YEP<\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul Ticaret Odas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eekib Avdagi\u00e7,<\/em> YEP ile ilgili olarak, “YEP, T\u00fcrkiye’yi 2023’e haz\u0131rlayacak ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ufuk \u00e7izdi. <\/em>Dengelenme, disiplin ve de\u011fi\u015fim kurgusu \u00fczerine oturtulan YEP’i ekonominin yeni anayasas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ekonominin t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rlerinin bu anayasaya sadakatle uyaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcphemiz yok\u201d\u00a0 <\/em>demi\u015ftir ama IMF tahminleri ile 2023 hedefleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 \u00a0g\u00f6zard\u0131 etmi\u015ftir.<\/em><\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan Ankara Spor Salonu’nda 23 Ocak 2011<\/em> tarihinde d\u00fczenlenen\u00a0\u00a0 \u201cT\u00fcrkiye 2023’e y\u00fcr\u00fcyor, Ankara AK Parti’de Bulu\u015fuyor\u201d<\/em>\u00a0 <\/strong>program\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 hedeflerini \u015f\u00f6yle a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: ”\u0130n\u015fallah 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda hedefimiz 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i h\u00e2s\u0131la. 2023’te ise T\u00fcrkiye’nin in\u015fallah milli gelirini 2 trilyon dolar seviyesinde g\u00f6rmek istiyoruz. Hedefimiz bu. 82 milyonla ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelirin 25 bin dolar olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Bunu da ba\u015faraca\u011f\u0131z. 13 y\u0131l sonra in\u015fallah ihracat 500 milyar dolara, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi ise 1 trilyon dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacak.\u201d<\/em> (https:\/\/www.haberturk.com\/ekonomi\/makro-ekonomi\/haber\/594402-iste-ekonomide-2023-hedefleri)<\/p>\n

6 May\u0131s 2018<\/em> tarihli\u00a0IMF List of Countries by Projected GDP per capita<\/a>\u00a0<\/em>listesine g\u00f6re 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda L\u00fcksemburg ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na cari fiyatlarla 120,061 dolar ile 191 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ilk s\u0131radad\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in hedef 144,081 dolard\u0131r. Son d\u00f6nemde hediye u\u00e7ak ile g\u00fcndeme gelen Katar 66,202 dolar ile 7\u2019ncidir. 2023 hedefi Katar da 80,562 dolard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye<\/em> 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen 11,114<\/em> dolar ile 191 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ancak 68\u2019nci olabilmi\u015ftir.<\/em> 2023 tahmini ise 14,013 <\/em>dolard\u0131r.\u00a0Oysa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan \u00a02011 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu rakam\u0131 25,000 dolar a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Aradaki fark 10,987 dolard\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

OVP\u2019da milli gelir \u00a0( GSMH) 2018 hedefi 854<\/em>, YEP\u2019da 926<\/em> milyar dolard\u0131r. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019a g\u00f6re 2023 hedefi 2 trilyon dolard\u0131r.<\/em> Oysa IMF\u2019in\u00a0 Outlook April 2018 yay\u0131n\u0131nda yay\u0131n\u0131nda<\/a>\u00a02018 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSMH (GDP) <\/strong>909,89<\/em> dolar, 2023 hedefi ise 1,224<\/em> milyon dolard\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu de\u011fer ile T\u00fcrkiye 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya GSMH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,04\u2019n\u00fc \u00fcreterek 17\u2019nci s\u0131radad\u0131r.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2023 hedefi ile IMF hedefi aras\u0131ndaki fark 776 milyar<\/em> dolard\u0131r. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ilk s\u0131rada 20,4 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %20,4\u2019\u00fc) ABD, ikinci s\u0131rada 14,0 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %14,0\u2019\u00fc) \u00c7in, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada ise 5,1 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %5,1\u2019i) Japonya gelmektedir. IMF\u2019in 2023 tahminleri ise \u015f\u00f6yledir: ABD 24,5, \u00c7in 21,5, Japonya ise 5,9 trilyon dolar.<\/p>\n

OVPda ihracat\u0131n (cif) 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini 201,4<\/em>, ithalat\u0131n ise 273,2<\/em> milyar, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin ise 474,6<\/em> milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. YEP\u2019da bu rakamlar revize edilerek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir: 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ihracat 170, ithalat 236,<\/em> 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 204<\/em> ve 267<\/em> milyar dolar.\u00a0 YEP\u2019daki hedefler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n 500 milyar dolar<\/em> olmas\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r. YEP\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,8, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,5 ve 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5, enflasyon \u00a0hedefleri ise 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 20,8, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 15,9, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9,8, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6 olarak belirlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Gerek OVP\u2019da ve gerekse YEP\u2019daki de\u011ferler ile Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar vard\u0131r. Bu rakamlar kapsam\u0131nda \u0130stanbul Ticaret Odas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eekib Avdagi\u00e7\u2019in “YEP, T\u00fcrkiye’yi 2023’e haz\u0131rlayacak ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ufuk \u00e7izdi<\/em>. YEP\u2019i ekonominin yeni anayasas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ekonominin t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rlerinin bu anayasaya sadakatle uyaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcphemiz yok\u201d<\/em>\u00a0 (http:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr\/ekonomi\/ekonominin-yeni-anayasasi-yep-40962380) derken IMF\u2019in ve OECD\u2019nin tahminlerini dikkate almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Eski bir planlamac\u0131 ve\u00a0 DPT mensubu olarak\u00a0 Avdagi\u00e7\u2019in “YEP, T\u00fcrkiye’yi 2023’e haz\u0131rlayacak ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ufuk \u00e7izdi<\/em>\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131lmam m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/em> Bunun i\u00e7in iktisat profes\u00f6r\u00fc olmaya gerek yoktur. Biraz okuma yazma, biraz da toplama \u00e7\u0131karma bilmek yeterlidir. Bu konuda \u00fcyesi oldu\u011fumuz OECD ve IMF\u2019in rakamlar\u0131na da g\u00fcvenmek gerekir. E\u011fer bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n tahminleri do\u011fru de\u011filse OECD ve IMF\u2019yi ikaz etmek h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00f6revi olmal\u0131d\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\n

\u015e\u00fcphesiz T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nde hi\u00e7 kimse 2023 hedeflerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesini istemez, hi\u00e7 kimse de \u00fclkede ekonomik istikrar\u0131n bozulmas\u0131ndan memnun olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkes bu gemidedir. Gemi su al\u0131rsa bundan herkes etkilenir. Ama hedef belirlerken tutarl\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n

YEP ekonominin yeni anayasas\u0131 ise,\u00a0 bu anayasa \u015fimdi oldu\u011fu gibi (OVP-YEP) k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede de\u011fi\u015fmez.\u00a0 K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimler istikrar\u0131 bozar, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olumsuz etkiler, yabanc\u0131 sermayeye g\u00fcven vermez. T\u00fcm bunlar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130nsani Geli\u015fme Endeksi (\u0130GE) s\u0131ralamas\u0131ndaki yerinin y\u00fckselmesine engel olur.<\/p>\n

\u0130GE, insani geli\u015fmenin \u00fc\u00e7 temel boyutunda uzun vadeli ilerlemeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm y\u00f6ntemidir. \u00a0\u00dc\u00e7 temel boyut; uzun ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ya\u015fam, bilgiye eri\u015fim ve insana yak\u0131\u015f\u0131r bir ya\u015fam standard\u0131d\u0131r. Bir \u00fclkede temel insani geli\u015fme alan\u0131ndaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130GE ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen insani geli\u015fmedeki ilerleme, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak \u00fclkenin konumunu belirler. \u0130GE\u2019de \u00f6ne ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in de \u00fclkede ekonomik istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

Bir ekonomide istikrar bozulduysa bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in gerekli tedbirler acilen al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Kriz varsa yoktur diyerek bir yere var\u0131lamaz. E\u011fer hastan\u0131n tutuldu\u011fu habis hastal\u0131ktan dolay\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 varsa, siz ila\u00e7 vererek a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak giderebilirsiniz ama bu hastan\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015ftu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. A\u011fr\u0131lar ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre ortadan kalkar ama hasta tedavi edilmezse tutuldu\u011fu hastal\u0131ktan \u00f6lebilir. Ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul ederek zaman\u0131nda al\u0131nan\u00a0\u00a0 tedbirler hastay\u0131 kurtar\u0131r. Bu nedenle YEP y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe konulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir konular\u0131nda YEP\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenleri ve ekonomik ger\u00e7ekler nelerdir? Program\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 var m\u0131? 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 hedeflerini yakalayabilecek miyiz? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[63,2,64],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nYeni Ekonomi Program Hedefleri ile IMF Hedefleri Aras\u0131ndaki Fark\u0131n Sebebi Nedir? - M\u0130SAK- Mill\u00ee Strateji Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Kurulu<\/title>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yeni Ekonomi Program Hedefleri ile IMF Hedefleri Aras\u0131ndaki Fark\u0131n Sebebi Nedir? - M\u0130SAK- Mill\u00ee Strateji Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Kurulu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir konular\u0131nda YEP\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenleri ve ekonomik ger\u00e7ekler nelerdir? Program\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 var m\u0131? 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 hedeflerini yakalayabilecek miyiz?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"M\u0130SAK- Mill\u00ee Strateji Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Kurulu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-09-28T16:30:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-09-28T13:04:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/beratalbayra.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"352\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\">\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"18 dakika\">\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Mill\\u00ee D\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcnce Merkezi\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/\",\"sameAs\":[],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/mdmLogo-yazisiz.jpg\",\"width\":422,\"height\":422,\"caption\":\"Mill\\u00ee D\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcnce Merkezi\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/\",\"name\":\"M\\u0130SAK- Mill\\u00ee Strateji Ara\\u015ft\\u0131rma Kurulu\",\"description\":\"D\\u00fcnyaya T\\u00fcrk\\u00e7\\u00fc Bak\\u0131\\u015f\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/?s={search_term_string}\",\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/beratalbayra.png\",\"width\":640,\"height\":352},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/yeni-ekonomi-program-hedefleri-ile-imf-hedefleri-arasindaki-farkin-sebebi-nedir\/\",\"name\":\"Yeni Ekonomi Program Hedefleri ile IMF Hedefleri Aras\\u0131ndaki Fark\\u0131n Sebebi Nedir? 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R\\u0131dvan Karluk, 1970\\u2019de Ankara \\u00dcniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fak\\u00fcltesi\\u2019ni bitirdi. 1975\\u2019te doktor, 1979\\u2019da do\\u00e7ent oldu. 1975 \\u2013 1976\\u2019da Sussex \\u00dcniversitesi\\u2019nde doktora \\u00fcst\\u00fc ara\\u015ft\\u0131rma yapt\\u0131. 1982 y\\u0131l\\u0131nda Devlet Planlama Te\\u015fkilat\\u0131 AET Dairesini (Genel M\\u00fcd\\u00fcrl\\u00fck) kurdu. 1985-1990 y\\u0131llar\\u0131nda Paris\\u2019te, OECD T\\u00fcrkiye B\\u00fcy\\u00fckel\\u00e7ili\\u011fi\\u2019nde Planlama M\\u00fc\\u015faviri olarak \\u00e7al\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131. 1990-1992 y\\u0131llar\\u0131nda Ba\\u015fbakanl\\u0131k Ba\\u015fm\\u00fc\\u015favirli\\u011fi\\u2019ne atand\\u0131. 1991 y\\u0131l\\u0131nda Anadolu \\u00dcniversitesi\\u2019ne ge\\u00e7mi\\u015f, 2014 y\\u0131l\\u0131nda emekli olmu\\u015ftur. Bu s\\u00fcre i\\u00e7inde \\u0130ktisadi Geli\\u015fme ve Uluslararas\\u0131 Geli\\u015fme Anabilim Dal\\u0131 Ba\\u015fkanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131, 2010-2013 d\\u00f6neminde \\u0130ktisat Fak\\u00fcltesi Dekanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 yapm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131r. Uluslararas\\u0131 Ekonomi, T\\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi, Avrupa Birli\\u011fi ve Uluslararas\\u0131 Ekonomik \\u0130li\\u015fkiler konular\\u0131nda 24 kitab\\u0131, 12 ortak ve 3 \\u00e7eviri eseri vard\\u0131r. Ortak yazarl\\u0131 bir ders kitab\\u0131 T\\u00dcBA \\u00fcniversite ders kitaplar\\u0131 2012 y\\u0131l\\u0131 telif ve \\u00e7eviri eser \\u00f6d\\u00fcl\\u00fc olmak \\u00fczere 6 bilimsel ara\\u015ft\\u0131rma \\u00f6d\\u00fcl\\u00fcne sahiptir. 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