{"id":4604,"date":"2018-12-12T19:30:00","date_gmt":"2018-12-12T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com?p=4604&preview=true&preview_id=4604"},"modified":"2018-12-11T11:47:52","modified_gmt":"2018-12-11T08:47:52","slug":"kuresel-iklim-degisikligi-kiyamet-alameti-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/kuresel-iklim-degisikligi-kiyamet-alameti-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi k\u0131yamet alameti mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"K\u00fcresel

K\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri<\/p><\/div>\n

Hava durumu kumar\u0131nda zarlar\u0131 kim at\u0131yor?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

J. Haner, National Geographic<\/em> Dergisi 2017 Nisan say\u0131s\u0131nda\u00a0 yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalesinde \u015f\u00f6yle demektedir; \u201c2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan s\u0131cakl\u0131klar, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lan rekorlar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndakiler de 2014 rekorlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Binlerce meteoroloji istasyonu, \u015famand\u0131ra ve gemi taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerden elde edilen ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n k\u00fcresel y\u00fczey s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l ortalamas\u0131ndan 0,94 derece daha y\u00fcksekti. Atmosferi ara\u015ft\u0131ran uydular da belirgin \u0131s\u0131nma e\u011filimleri saptad\u0131lar.\u00a0Sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sera gazlar\u0131ysa, \u0131s\u0131y\u0131 d\u00fcnya y\u00fczeyinde hapseden bir \u00f6rt\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor.\u00a0On uzmandan dokuzu ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte: Karbon sal\u0131m\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00a0<\/strong>Buzullar h\u0131zla eriyor.\u00a0Eriyen deniz buzu, deniz seviyesini etkilemiyor; ama eriyen kara buzu, deniz seviyesinde y\u00fckselmeye neden oluyor. Da\u011flardaki buzullarda k\u00fcresel olarak \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fan\u0131yor. 1900\u2019den bu yana meydana gelen 20\u201323 santimetrelik y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u0131y\u0131 kesimlerinde su ta\u015fk\u0131n\u0131 miktar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finde etkili oldu. En b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit Gr\u00f6nland ve Antartika\u2019y\u0131 kaplayan buzul \u00f6rt\u00fcleri. Deniz seviyesinin 70 metre y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7acak kadar \u00e7ok buz i\u00e7eriyorlar.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hava durumu ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fimiz kumarda zarlar\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi at\u0131yor. Kurakl\u0131k veya f\u0131rt\u0131na yaratm\u0131yor; ama bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p azalt\u0131yor. S\u0131cakl\u0131k dalgalar\u0131 durumunda olas\u0131l\u0131k daha da art\u0131yor.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"

Bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Gr\u00f6nland buz \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcnde erime suyundan olu\u015fan mavi g\u00f6lleri inceliyor. NASA uydular\u0131na g\u00f6re, k\u0131tan\u0131n buz \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fc 2002\u2019den bu yana ortalama 287 milyar ton buz yitirdi. [Foto\u011fraf: Nick Cobbing]<\/p><\/div>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi<\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye G\u0131da ve \u0130\u00e7ecek Dernekleri Federasyonu’nun 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve Tar\u0131mda S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik<\/em>\u201d raporundaki ifadeye g\u00f6re; \u201cEge, Orta Anadolu ve Akdeniz\u2019de k\u0131\u015f ve ilkbahar ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131 azal\u0131rken, hem yaz aylar\u0131ndaki hava s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hem de buharla\u015fma-terleme artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi, m\u0131s\u0131r gibi yazl\u0131k bitkileri ve yonca ekili\u015finin Orta Anadolu\u2019da h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye genelinde mera alanlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan sulama suyu miktar\u0131 bug\u00fcne g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilecektir. Sulama yap\u0131lsa bile bitkiler \u00e7i\u00e7eklenme ve tane doldurma d\u00f6neminde daha y\u00fcksek ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131caklara maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle yazl\u0131k bitkilerin veriminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel de\u011fi\u015fikliler<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Sera gazlar\u0131n\u0131n ve aerosollerin etkilerini birlikte dikkate alan en duyarl\u0131 iklim modelleri, k\u00fcresel ortalama y\u00fczey s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131nda 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 1-3,5 C\u00b0 aras\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak deniz seviyesinde de 15-95 cm aras\u0131nda bir y\u00fckselme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir. \u0130\u00e7erdi\u011fi t\u00fcm belirsizliklere kar\u015f\u0131n, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi durumunda, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler i\u00e7in ekstrem y\u00fcksek s\u0131cakl\u0131klar, ta\u015fk\u0131nlar, yayg\u0131n ve \u015fiddetli kurakl\u0131k olaylar\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bunlar\u0131n do\u011fal bir sonucu olan \u00e7al\u0131l\u0131k ve orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131 ile insan sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ekolojik sistemlerin i\u015flevselli\u011fini de i\u00e7eren baz\u0131 ciddi potansiyel de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir g\u00fcvenilirlik d\u00fczeyinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir (T\u00fcrke\u015f ve ark., 2000).<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131klardaki art\u0131\u015flara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde hidrolojik d\u00f6ng\u00fcde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin olmas\u0131, kara ve deniz buzullar\u0131n\u0131n erimesi, deniz seviyesinin y\u00fckselmesi, iklim ku\u015faklar\u0131n\u0131n yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi ve salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi, ekolojik sistemleri ve insan ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyecek \u00f6nemli farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenmektedir (T\u00fcrke\u015f ve ark. 2000).<\/p>\n

Zamana ve b\u00f6lgeye g\u00f6re farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar<\/strong><\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkileri yaln\u0131z k\u00fcresel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z etkilerle de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki iklim de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinde oldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00f6lgeye ve zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131klar da olu\u015fabilecektir: \u00d6rne\u011fin, gelecekte d\u00fcnyan\u0131n baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde kas\u0131rgalar, kuvvetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar ile onlara ba\u011fl\u0131 seller ve ta\u015fk\u0131nlar gibi meteorolojik afetlerin \u015fiddetlerinde ve s\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olurken, di\u011fer baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde uzun s\u00fcreli ve \u015fiddetli kurakl\u0131klar ve bunlarla ili\u015fkili yayg\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6lle\u015fme olaylar\u0131 da daha fazla etkili olabilecektir (T\u00fcrke\u015f ve ark., 2010).<\/p>\n

Son y\u0131llarda \u00fclkemizin hemen her b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani ve \u015fiddetli ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n toprak taraf\u0131ndan emilemeden, y\u00fczey ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak sellere ve ta\u015fk\u0131nlara neden oldu\u011fu, tar\u0131msal alanlar ile kentlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Bu olaylar hem ciddi hem de magazin haberi olarak birer fenomen haline gelmi\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bakandan korkutucu a\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00c7evre ve \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcste\u015far Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 ve \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Ba\u015fm\u00fczakerecisi Mehmet Emin Birp\u0131nar, 15 May\u0131s D\u00fcnya \u0130klim G\u00fcn\u00fc dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 korkutucu a\u00e7\u0131klamada, 2099 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n giderek artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Birp\u0131nar, “\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00e7evresel ve iklimsel de\u011fi\u015fimler \u00fclkemizde de g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimler aras\u0131nda artmaya devam edecek olan s\u0131cakl\u0131klar ba\u015fta geliyor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye genelinde kurakl\u0131k ve ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n 2099 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar artmaya devam etmesi bekleniyor”<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyadaki ya\u015fam\u0131n mevcut haliyle korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in atmosferdeki karbondioksit gaz\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funlu\u011funun belli bir oran\u0131 ge\u00e7memesi gerekti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken Birp\u0131nar, “Emisyonlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar ton. \u0130nsano\u011flu bu \u015fekilde devam ederse 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2 derecelik s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ula\u015facak, y\u00fczy\u0131l sonuna kadar da 4 ila 6 derecelik bir \u0131s\u0131nma ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. Bu da geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir yola girilmesi demek.”<\/em> diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in’in y\u0131ll\u0131k emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 11,7 milyar ton, ABD’nin ise 6,2 milyar ton oldu\u011funu dile getiren Birp\u0131nar ayr\u0131ca \u015funlar\u0131 da s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

“Nisan ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ulusal envanterimize g\u00f6re, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkemizin emisyonlar\u0131 ise 496 milyon ton. Tarihsel emisyonlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise ABD y\u00fczde 28, AB y\u00fczde 23, Rusya y\u00fczde 11, \u00c7in y\u00fczde 9 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden sorumluyken, \u00fclkemizin tarihsel sorumlulu\u011fu sadece y\u00fczde 0,7.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Birp\u0131nar, bu kapsamda, T\u00fcrkiye’de ender g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen hortum, y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m gibi afetlerin de en az sel, \u015fiddetli r\u00fczg\u00e2r, dolu, heyelan ve don kadar \u00f6ncelikli oldu\u011fu sonucunun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131 (Haberler.com)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

WWF (D\u00fcnya Yaban Hayat\u0131 Vakf\u0131)\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

WWF-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Yar\u0131nlar\u0131 Projesi Sonu\u00e7 Raporu\u2019nda \u201c\u00dclkemizin de i\u00e7erisinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Akdeniz Havzas\u0131, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 yerk\u00fcrenin en hassas b\u00f6lgelerinden birisidir. Akdeniz Havzas\u0131\u2019nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek 2\u00b0C\u2019lik bir s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, beklenmeyen hava olaylar\u0131, s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda ve etkisinde art\u0131\u015f, kurakl\u0131k ve bunlar dolay\u0131s\u0131yla biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlilik kayb\u0131, turizm gelirlerinde azalma, tar\u0131msal verim kayb\u0131 ve en \u00f6nemlisi kurakl\u0131k olarak etkilerini hissettirecektir.\u201d<\/em> denmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu Projenin Sonu\u00e7 Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkileri \u015f\u00f6yle olacak:<\/p>\n