http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.2094175<\/a>, Last revised: 9 Jan 2015<\/em>)<\/p>\nBu \u00fclkelerdeki ba\u015fl\u0131ca borsa endekslerine ili\u015fkin 1993\/2 ile 2012\/4 aras\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k getiri analizlerine dayanan sonu\u00e7lar, Avrupa\u2019daki ekonomik politika belirsizli\u011findeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ndeki t\u00fcm borsa getirilerini olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Norve\u00e7, Rusya, \u0130svi\u00e7re, T\u00fcrkiye ve Ukrayna\u2019ya etkisi, H\u0131rvatistan ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin yedi \u00fcyesi (Bulgaristan, Estonya, Letonya, Litvanya, Malta, Slovakya ve Slovenya) d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131d\u0131r. Bulgular, ekonomik politika belirsizli\u011finin Avrupa’da borsa performans\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisine ili\u015fkin ampirik kan\u0131tlar sunmaktad\u0131r. (https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2094175)<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, daha y\u00fcksek bir finansman maliyeti demektir.<\/em> Bankalar ve alacakl\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan alg\u0131lanan ekonomide daha y\u00fcksek risk sonucu (Gilchrist vd. 2010; Fernandez-Villaverde vd, 2012) artan finansman maliyeti yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n cesaretini k\u0131rar, firmalar potansiyel yat\u0131r\u0131m projeleri \u00fcstlenmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rlar.\u00a0Gelecekle ilgili belirsizlik ile yat\u0131r\u0131m faaliyetleri aras\u0131nda olumsuz bir ili\u015fki vard\u0131r<\/em>.<\/strong> Firmalar yat\u0131r\u0131m projeleri ve mal t\u00fcketimine yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131 erteleme e\u011filimindedir. Reel ekonomideki belirsizli\u011fin \u00e7e\u015fitli ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sermayeye etkisi piyasalarda ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve belgelenmi\u015ftir. (Sum, 2012)\u00a0 Avrupa’daki ekonomik politika belirsizli\u011fi, Avrupa’daki t\u00fcm borsa getirilerini olumsuz etkilemektedir.<\/p>\nBenzer \u015fekilde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksi, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15,4 gerileyerek Mart 2009\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye (71 de\u011feri) gerilemi\u015ftir. Endeks Kas\u0131m 2008\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cEkonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcketici, reel kesim (imalat sanayi), hizmet, perakende ticaret ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endekslerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden kaynakland\u0131\u201d<\/em> denilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\nT\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019ta 83.9 de\u011ferine gerilemi\u015f, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9,1 artarak 67,5’ten 73,7’ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketici, reel kesim (imalat sanayisi), hizmetler ve perakende ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endekslerindeki art\u0131\u015flardan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi 59,6’ya, Reel Kesim (imalat sanayisi) G\u00fcven Endeksi 96,8’e, Hizmet Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi 79,8’e ve Perakende Ticaret Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi 90,7’ye y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. \u0130n\u015faat Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00fcven Endeksi ise bu ay 56,6 de\u011ferine gerilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme ekonomide az da olsa bir d\u00fczelmenin g\u00f6stergesi olarak alg\u0131lanabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin 100\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 ortalama \u00fczeri<\/em> g\u00fcveni, 100\u2019den k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olmas\u0131 ise ortalama alt\u0131<\/em> g\u00fcveni g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu endeks, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin olarak di\u011fer ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re daha erken bilgi sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00f6nc\u00fc bir g\u00f6stergedir.<\/p>\nFakat madalyonun bir di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fc de vard\u0131r. IMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu<\/em>\u2019nun Ekim 2018 say\u0131s\u0131 \u0130stikrarl\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi S\u0131nayan Zorluklar<\/em> ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Her y\u0131l, IMF-D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde olmak \u00fczere iki defa haz\u0131rlanan Rapor\u2019da, 2018 ve 2019 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri, y\u00fckselen riskler sebebiyle y\u00fczde 3,9’dan y\u00fczde 3,7’ye indirilmi\u015ftir. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik negatif revizyona baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna; son 6 ayda g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri, siyasi belirsizlikler ve y\u00fckselen piyasalardaki sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ortam haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\nIMF, baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminin y\u00fczde 2,9’da sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, 2019 beklentisi \u00c7in ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 sebebiyle y\u00fczde 2,7’den y\u00fczde 2,5’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Raporda, ABD ekonomisinin tam istihdam\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fclkede enflasyonun ani \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131n finansal piyasalar i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturdu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirmelerine yer verilmi\u015ftir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde Almanya ve Fransa’ya y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikler g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r. Raporda Almanya’n\u0131n bu ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bekledi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rakamlar, Temmuz ay\u0131nda g\u00fcncellenen raporda 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,2 ve 2019 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Fransa’n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,8’den y\u00fczde 1,6’ya ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,7’den y\u00fczde 1,6’ya \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. \u0130spanya’ya y\u00f6nelik 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2,8’den y\u00fczde 2,7’ye indirilirken, gelecek y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 2,2’de sabit tutulmu\u015ftur.\u00a0 \u0130talya’ya y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ise de\u011fi\u015ftirilmemi\u015ftir. IMF, \u0130talya’n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,2 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye devam etmi\u015ftir. Benzer \u015fekilde, \u0130ngiltere’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 1,4 ve gelecek y\u0131la y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 1,5’te b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0 Kurulu\u015f, Japonya’ya y\u00f6nelik 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini 0,1 puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 1,1’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, 2019 beklentisini y\u00fczde 0,9 ile bir \u00f6nceki rapordaki seviyesinde tutmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Bu revizyonlar, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik 2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 2,2’den y\u00fczde 2,1’e indirilmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f, IMF’nin s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclke grubuna ili\u015fkin 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 2,4’te sabit kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Raporda, IMF’nin y\u00fckselen piyasalar ve geli\u015fme yolunda olan ekonomilere y\u00f6nelik 2018-2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u00fczde 4,7’ye indirilmi\u015ftir. Bu rakamlar, Temmuz ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan Raporda 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,9 ve 2019 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5,1 olarak belirlenmi\u015fti. Bu grup i\u00e7inde Brezilya, Meksika, Arjantin ve G\u00fcney Afrika’n\u0131n hem 2018 hem 2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. IMF Brezilya’n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in 0,4 puan azaltarak y\u00fczde 1,4’e ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in 0,1 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 2,4’e revize etmi\u015ftir. IMF, stand-by anla\u015fmas\u0131 (do\u011frusu destekleme d\u00fczenlemesi) imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Arjantin’in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,6 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,6 daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’ye y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken IMF, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,5 ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunmu\u015ftur. Bu oranlar, Temmuz ay\u0131nda g\u00fcncellenen Raporda s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,2 ve y\u00fczde 3,9 seviyesindeydi. T\u00fcrkiye’de t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 15 ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 16,7 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini tahmin etmi\u015ftir. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahminleri ise bu y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 11 ve 2019 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 12,3 olarak belirlenmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 Rapor\u2019da, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131laya oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 5,7’e y\u00fckseldikten sonra gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,4’e gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
YEP ve OVP hedefleri aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli farklar var<\/strong><\/h2>\nBu geli\u015fmeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2023 ekonomik hedeflerini tutturulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/em> Yeni Ekonomik Program (YEP) ile Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) hedefleri aras\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli farklar vard\u0131r. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde hedeflerin tutturulmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durumda, her 3 ayda bir Almanya\u2019dan \u015fahs\u0131ma g\u00f6nderilen \u201cQuestionnaire WES Survey July 2018: Data requested for Turkey Code-No: 16001852- 5032.8059.01, IFO World Economic Survey, Nothhaft, Jasmin [Nothhaft@ifo.de]<\/em> sualnamesini doldururken gelecek 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme beklemedi\u011fimi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131m.<\/p>\nOVP ile YEP aras\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcrelerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n sebebi \u015fudur: Ya tahminler \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerle \u00e7ok olumlu senaryolara g\u00f6re yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r ya da tahminde bulunanalar bir hata yapmaktad\u0131rlar. E\u011fer son \u015f\u0131k ge\u00e7erli ise OVP\u2019\u0131n haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131nda g\u00f6rev alanlara bu sapmalar sorulmal\u0131d\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\nOVP\u2019da GSYH art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5 olarak hedeflenmi\u015ftir. YEP\u2019da 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi 2,3’e \u00e7ekilmi\u015f, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyon hedefi ise y\u00fczde 15,9; 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9,8;\u00a0 2021 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6,0 olarak g\u00fcncellenmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma Kurulu\u015fu (OECD) nezdindeki B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011finde 5 y\u0131l g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f biri olarak OECD\u2019nin 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2018\u2019de 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 5,1’den y\u00fczde 3,2’ye, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4,9’dan y\u00fczde 0,5’e \u00e7ekti\u011fi herhalde g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
OECD’nin raporunda; T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki bask\u0131 ile banka ve \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lar\u0131 sebebiyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131l\u0131rken, “Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile artan faizlerin g\u00fcven ortam\u0131na yapaca\u011f\u0131 etkiye ve bunun da t\u00fcketimin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131” <\/em>uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunulmu\u015ftur. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratins T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,8, 2019 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,9 ve 2020 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,9 olarak g\u00fcncellemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\nFitch, 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve yeniden istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (Fitch cuts Turkey growth forecast and warns of downside risks, https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/569d46fc-b01f-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c<\/em>) Fitch, 2018-2020 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, ciddi ve yayg\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler beklediklerini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\nFitch’e g\u00f6re temel senaryodaki riskler \u015funlard\u0131r: Yanl\u0131\u015f siyasi ad\u0131mlar, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mali stresinin y\u00fckselmesi, jeopolitik gerginlikler ve olas\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Fitch Ratings, 21 Eyl\u00fcl<\/em>\u2019de de T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2018 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 20’ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015f,\u00a0“T\u00fcrkiye’nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni Orta Vadeli Ekonomik Program, kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olunan zorluklar\u0131n bilincinde”<\/em> tespitini yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (http:\/\/www.hurriyetdailynews.com\/fitch-forecasts-slower-growth-higher-inflation-in-turkey-137092<\/em>)<\/p>\nUluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nun Nisan 2018 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Konjonkt\u00fcrel \u0130yile\u015fme, Yap\u0131sal De\u011fi\u015fim<\/em> (World Economic Outlook, Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change) ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 4,4’e y\u00fckseltirken, 2019 beklentisini y\u00fczde 4\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. (https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2018\/03\/20\/world-economic-outlook-april-2018)<\/p>\nEnflasyon ekonomik krizin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir<\/strong><\/h2>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015f\u00fcphesiz Kas\u0131m 2000 ve \u015eubat 2011 krizlerine benzer bir kriz yoktur (S. R\u0131dvan Karluk, <\/em><\/strong>T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi<\/em>, 2014, 13. Bask\u0131, s. 547-576) ama\u00a0\u201cKriz filan yok, bunlar\u0131n hepsi manip\u00fclasyon”<\/em> ya da \u201cpsikolojiktir\u201d<\/em> demek do\u011fru de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc A\u011fustos 2013\u2019te 1,90 seviyelerinde olan dolar kuru bug\u00fcn 5,31\u2019lere ula\u015farak geli\u015fme yolunda olan \u00fclke paralar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden para birimi olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\nOECD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,5\u2019lik bir tahmin a\u00e7\u0131klarken, h\u00fck\u00fcmet program\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 2,3 olmas\u0131 iyimser olup, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zordur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Bakan Albayrak program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken OECD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr: 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminini y\u00fczde 5,1’den y\u00fczde 3,2’ye, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4,9’dan y\u00fczde 0,5’e \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Yay\u0131nlanan raporda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki bask\u0131 ile banka ve \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lar\u0131 sebebiyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumuna da yer verilmi\u015ftir. (https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2016\/05\/05\/comparing-crony-capitalism-around-the-world<\/em>)<\/p>\nYEP\u2019da T\u00dcFE y\u0131lsonu de\u011fi\u015fmesi y\u00fczde 20,8 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.\u00a0 Enflasyonda gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ve 2020\u2019nin hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. Fakat 2021\u2019in y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131 \u00e7ok iddial\u0131 olup, enflasyonun 2019-2021 d\u00f6neminde tek haneye indirilmesine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in YEP\u2019daki\u00a0\u00a0 hedeflere taviz verilmeden ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Aksi halde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni bir YEP haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 zorunlulu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. IMF, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi enflasyon oran\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 25 ve \u00fczerindeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6stermi\u015f, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyonun y\u00fczde 10-25 aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulunmu\u015ftur. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130ran, Cezayir ve Venez\u00fcella d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede \u00e7ift rakaml\u0131 enflasyon yoktur. D\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,3, Avrupa ortalamas\u0131 2,5, Kuzey Amerika ortalamas\u0131 ise 2,2\u2019dir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon, ekonomik krizin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir.<\/em> E\u011fer bir ekonomide y\u00fczde 20,8 oran\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsa,\u00a0 ekonomide kriz yoktur demek iktisat bilimini yok saymakt\u0131r. Ekonomilerde fiyat istikrar\u0131, ekonomik istikrar\u0131n temelidir. Bu temel \u00e7\u00f6kerse ekonomik istikrar sa\u011flanamaz. (Karluk, T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi<\/em>, s. 473) Enflasyonun ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclkede gelecek tahmini yapmak zor oldu\u011fundan dolay\u0131 \u00fcreticiler \u00fcretimlerini azalt\u0131r, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdururlar. Bunlar\u0131n sonucunda da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fer, enflasyon herkes taraf\u0131ndan hissedilebilir.<\/p>\n2023 art\u0131k hayal oldu<\/strong><\/h2>\nKriz olmayan, ekonomik istikrar\u0131n sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede hedeflerden k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli sapmalar olmaz. YEP hedefleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.\u00a02023 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 ekonomisi i\u00e7inde olmak, 500 milyar dolar ihracat ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelirin 25 bin dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131k bir hayal olmu\u015ftur.<\/em> YEP\u2019a g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n bu y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 4,90\u2019da olu\u015fmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015ftir ama bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Dolar kurundaki hedefler tutturulmazsa, bu durum YEP\u2019daki di\u011fer hedeflere de (dolar baz\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir, GSYH vb.)\u00a0 ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\nCari fiyatlarla GSYH OVP\u2019da 2018\u2019de 854 milyar dolar iken bu rakam YEP\u2019da 763 milyar dolara \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. Aradaki fark 91 milyar dolard\u0131r. Bu, OVP\u2019daki hedeften \u00f6nemli bir sapmay\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. YEP\u2019da 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 10,602 dolar olan ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH\u2019n\u0131n 2018\u2019de 9,385 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH tahmini 2019\u2019da 9,647; 2020\u2019de 10,292; 2021\u2019de ise 10,973 dolar olacakt\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir 3,660 dolar iken 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 10,540 dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ama T\u00fcrkiye, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 10 bin dolar olan orta gelir tuza\u011f\u0131ndan kurtulamayacakt\u0131r.<\/em> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkelerin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekillerde g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n![\"D\u00fcnya](\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/2.png\")
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkelerin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir tahminleri (Kaynak https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TR)<\/p><\/div>\n
![\"(Kaynak:](\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/3.png\")
(Kaynak: https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TR)<\/p><\/div>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 D\u00fcnya Kalk\u0131nma Raporu<\/em>\u2019nda (s. 389)\u00a0 ekonomiler ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama gelir a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 5 grupta toplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ekonomiler 1,005 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131, orta gelirli ekonomiler 1,006-12,275 dolar aras\u0131, alt orta gelirli ekonomiler 1,006-3.975 dolar aras\u0131, \u00fcst orta gelirli ekonomiler 3.976-12.275 dolar aras\u0131, y\u00fcksek gelirli ekonomiler 12,276 dolar ve \u00fczeri. T\u00fcrkiye, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen 9,385 (YEP) dolarl\u0131k ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k geliriyle orta gelirli ekonomiler aras\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH 3 trilyon 107 milyar TL (851 milyar dolar) olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f, ortalama dolar kuru 3,65 TL olmu\u015ftur. YEP\u2019te bu y\u0131l GSYH\u2019n\u0131n TL baz\u0131nda 3 trilyon 741 milyar, dolar baz\u0131nda 763 milyar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama dolar kuru 4,90 TL olarak tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Dolar kuru bu y\u0131l Ocak-Nisan d\u00f6neminde 3,70-4,00 TL, May\u0131s- Temmuz d\u00f6neminde 4,00-4,90 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyrettikten sonra A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana 5,00-6,90 aras\u0131nda dalgalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. YEP\u2019teki tahminlerde, dolar kurunun y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 esas al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu tahminler ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser varsay\u0131mlara dayanmaktad\u0131r. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama dolar kuru bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fartlarda 5,60 seviyesinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
![\"(Kaynak:](\"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/4.png\")
(Kaynak: YEP)<\/p><\/div>\n
6 May\u0131s 2018 tarihli IMF List of Countries by Projected GDP per capita listesine g\u00f6re 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda L\u00fcksemburg ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na cari fiyatlarla 120,061 dolar ile 191 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ilk s\u0131radad\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in hedef 144,081 dolard\u0131r. Son d\u00f6nemde hediye u\u00e7ak ile g\u00fcndeme gelen Katar 66,202 dolar ile 7\u2019ncidir. 2023 hedefi Katar da 80,562 dolard\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen 11,114 dolar (6 May\u0131s 2018 tahmini) \u00a0ile 191 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ancak 68\u2019nci olabilmi\u015ftir. 2023 tahmini ise 14,082 dolard\u0131r.<\/em> (http:\/\/statisticstimes.com\/economy\/countries-by-projected-gdp-capita.php) Oysa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu rakam\u0131 25,000<\/em> dolar a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Aradaki fark 11 bin dolard\u0131r.<\/p>\nOVP\u2019da milli gelir (GSMH) 2018 hedefi 854, YEP\u2019da 926 milyar dolard\u0131r. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019a g\u00f6re 2023 hedefi 2 trilyon dolard\u0131r. Oysa IMF\u2019in Outlook April 2018 yay\u0131n\u0131nda (http:\/\/statisticstimes.com\/economy\/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php<\/em>) 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSMH (GDP) 909,89 dolar, 2023 hedefi ise 1,224 milyon dolard\u0131r.<\/p>\nBu de\u011fer ile T\u00fcrkiye 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya GSMH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,04\u2019n\u00fc \u00fcreterek 17\u2019nci s\u0131rada olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2023 hedefi ile IMF hedefi aras\u0131ndaki fark 776 milyar dolard\u0131r. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ilk s\u0131rada 20,4 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %20,4\u2019\u00fc) ABD, ikinci s\u0131rada 14,0 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %14,0\u2019\u00fc) \u00c7in, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada ise 5,1 trilyon dolarla (d\u00fcnya gelirinin %5,1\u2019i) Japonya gelmektedir. IMF\u2019in 2023 tahminleri ise \u015f\u00f6yledir: ABD 24,5; \u00c7in 21,5; Japonya ise 5,9 trilyon dolar.<\/p>\n
OVP’da ihracat\u0131n (cif) 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini 201,4, ithalat\u0131n ise 273,2 milyar, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin ise 474,6 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. YEP\u2019da bu rakamlar revize edilerek\u00a0 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir: 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ihracat 170, ithalat 236, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 204 ve 267 milyar dolar. YEP\u2019daki hedefler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n 500 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r. YEP\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,8, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,5 ve 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5, enflasyon hedefleri ise 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 20,8, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 15,9, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9,8, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6 olarak belirlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Gerek OVP\u2019da ve gerekse YEP\u2019daki de\u011ferler ile Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar vard\u0131r.<\/em> Bu hedefler belirlenirken IMF\u2019nin ve OECD\u2019nin tahminleri dikkate al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Eski bir planc\u0131 ve DPT mensubu olarak \u0130stanbul Ticaret Odas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eekib Avdagi\u00e7\u2019in “YEP, T\u00fcrkiye’yi 2023’e haz\u0131rlayacak ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ufuk \u00e7izdi. YEP\u2019i ekonominin yeni anayasas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz<\/em>\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131lmam m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Bu konuda \u00fcyesi oldu\u011fumuz OECD ve IMF\u2019in rakamlar\u0131na g\u00fcvenmek gerekir. E\u011fer bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n tahminleri do\u011fru de\u011filse OECD ve IMF\u2019yi ikaz etmek h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00f6revi olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\u015e\u00fcphesiz T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nde hi\u00e7 kimse 2023 hedeflerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesini istemez, hi\u00e7 kimse de \u00fclkede ekonomik istikrar\u0131n bozulmas\u0131ndan memnun olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkes bu gemidedir. Gemi su al\u0131rsa bundan herkes etkilenir. Ama hedef belirlerken tutarl\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmak gerekir. <\/em><\/p>\nBir ekonomide istikrar bozulduysa bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in gerekli tedbirler acilen al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0 E\u011fer hastan\u0131n tutuldu\u011fu habis hastal\u0131ktan dolay\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 varsa, siz ila\u00e7 vererek a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak giderebilirsiniz ama bu hastan\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015ftu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. A\u011fr\u0131lar ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre ortadan kalkar ama hasta tedavi edilmezse tutuldu\u011fu hastal\u0131ktan \u00f6lebilir. Ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul ederek zaman\u0131nda al\u0131nan tedbirler hastay\u0131 kurtar\u0131r. Bu sebeple YEP y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe konulmu\u015ftur. Fakat de\u011fi\u015fen \u015fartlara uyum sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in mutlaka Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun 10 Aral\u0131k 2018\u2019de yay\u0131nlanan T\u00fcrkiye’de Ekonomik Politika Belirsizli\u011fi<\/em> ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131ndaki uyar\u0131lar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u015e\u00fcphesiz hi\u00e7 kimse 2023 hedeflerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesini istemez, \u00fclkede ekonomik istikrar\u0131n bozulmas\u0131ndan da memnun olmaz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkes bu gemidedir ve gemi su al\u0131rsa herkes bundan etkilenir. Fakat hedef belirlerken tutarl\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[63,64],"tags":[],"coauthors":[6],"class_list":["post-5026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-kurumlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5026"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=5026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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