{"id":846,"date":"2017-12-31T18:52:49","date_gmt":"2017-12-31T15:52:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/misak.millidusunce.com\/?p=846"},"modified":"2018-03-10T11:50:02","modified_gmt":"2018-03-10T08:50:02","slug":"iran-nereye-gidiyor-ilk-analizler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/iran-nereye-gidiyor-ilk-analizler\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran Nereye Gidiyor? \u0130lk Analizler"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130ran ve Sonra?<\/h2>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeni y\u0131la haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kilit \u00fclkelerinden biri olan \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fanan toplumsal g\u00f6steriler ve etkisinde geli\u015fen s\u00fcre\u00e7 2018\u2019in, zaten \u00e7ok zorlu ge\u00e7en 2017\u2019ye k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fini ve \u00e7ok daha zorlu olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cYereldeki k\u0131r\u0131lmalar b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fiyor. Co\u011frafyadaki k\u0131r\u0131lmalar geli\u015ftik\u00e7e, etkileri de derinle\u015fiyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMilenyum-Armegedon-K\u0131yamet inan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d \u0131srarla damgalamak istedi\u011fi, ba\u015fta etnik ve mezhebi fay hatlar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere dini, ideolojik, siyasi ve menfeat odakl\u0131 rekabet-m\u00fccadele ve d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar\u0131n derinden etkiledi\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz co\u011frafyas\u0131nda, \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201calan farkl\u0131\u201d geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Belli ki bu sene de co\u011frafyadaki kas\u0131rgalar dinmeyecek. Hatta \u00e7ok daha sertle\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek ve buna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Ba\u015fta Suriye meselesi, \u2018s\u00f6zde\u2019 Il\u0131ml\u0131 ve Radikal \u0130slam olmak \u00fczere, evrimle\u015ferek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen tehditler, yeni jenerasyonlar\u0131yla birlikte bamba\u015fka ve silba\u015ftan dinamiklerle ulus ve \u00fcniter devletleri, toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fcklerini, k\u00fclt\u00fcrleri, inan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve zihinleri tehdit etmeye, zorlamaya devam edecek. Tehditler b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, uluslararas\u0131 r\u00fc\u015fvet ve hara\u00e7lar, siyasi ve ideolojik e\u011filimlerde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler, pozisyon farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nem kazanacak, kimi \u00fclkeler boyun e\u011fme e\u011filimleri \u00fcretirken, kimi \u00fclkelerde m\u00fccadele e\u011filimleri g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n

S\u0131cak g\u00fcndem \u0130ran \u00f6zelinde ise, \u0130ran\u2019daki toplumsal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kendi i\u00e7inde kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bamba\u015fka dinamiklerin de devreye girmesiyle b\u00fct\u00fcn co\u011frafyay\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fanan ve ya\u015fanacak her olay, sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 de\u011fil, ba\u015fta T\u00fcrkiye olmak \u00fczere, Irak, Suriye, Yemen, Bahreyn, Filistin olmak \u00fczere co\u011frafyada ya\u015fanan b\u00fct\u00fcn dini-mezhebi-etnik ve siyasi geli\u015fmeleri etkileyecek, hatta parametrelerini belirleyecek \u00f6nemler ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Hatta \u0130ran\u2019dan sonra s\u0131ran\u0131n \u201cbir kez daha\u201d T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelece\u011fini dahi ifade ediliyor. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yeni y\u0131l mesaj\u0131nda; \u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l, gerek i\u00e7erde, gerekse d\u0131\u015farda yine \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerin bizi bekledi\u011fini biliyoruz.\u201d \u201cBizi birbirimize d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek isteyenlere f\u0131rsat vermeyelim. K\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmalara kar\u015f\u0131 uyan\u0131k olal\u0131m\u201d derken, belki de \u2018s\u0131cak g\u00fcndem\u2019 \u0130ran benzeri bir s\u00fcrecin, benzer ve farkl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de s\u00f6z konusu olabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feler ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Olaylar\u0131n G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrdeki Sebepleri<\/h2>\n

Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran sars\u0131l\u0131yor. \u015eehirler yang\u0131n yeri, insanlar hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybediyor, yaralan\u0131yor. Ya\u015fanan g\u00f6steriler \u00fczerinden;
\n\u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n milli g\u00fc\u00e7 dinamikleri ve toplumsal mayas\u0131 test ediliyor.\u201d E\u011fer \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve de\u011fi\u015fik farkl\u0131l\u0131k ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7ine alarak geli\u015fen olaylar derinle\u015firse, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorunla ve ard\u0131 kesilmeyecek operasyonlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019daki g\u00fcncenin ruhunu kavrayabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle eylemlerin gerek\u00e7elerine bakmak gerekiyor:
\n– Temel gerek\u00e7e i\u015fsizlik, yoksulluk ve yolsuzluk,
\n– Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki adaletsizlik,
\n– Maa\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6denmemesi,
\n– Fahi\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, enflasyon,
\n– Dahil olunan Irak ve Suriye\u2019deki m\u00fccadelelere \u00e7ok para ak\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131,
\n– Siyasi tutuklular\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131,
\n– Temel hak ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler,
\n– Mollalar ile halk aras\u0131nda var olan u\u00e7urumlar.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6stericilerin; \u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck ya da \u00f6l\u00fcm\u201d, \u201cHalk dileniyor, mollalar Allah gibi davran\u0131yor\u201d, \u201cSiyasi tutuklular serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmal\u0131\u201d, dini lider Hamaney kast edilerek; \u201cSeyyid Ali utan\u00e7 duymal\u0131 ve \u00fclkeyi rahat b\u0131rakmal\u0131\u201d, \u201cRuhani\u2019ye \u00f6l\u00fcm, diktat\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00fcm\u201d ve \u201cSuriye\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131n, biraz bizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d gibi sloganlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131, yerel kaynaklar ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler \u00fczerinden kendini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Temel Kritik Noktalar<\/h2>\n

Temel gerek\u00e7eler yukar\u0131dakiler gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckse de ger\u00e7ekte as\u0131l sorun art\u0131k burada de\u011fil. G\u00f6sterilerin \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede bu eksenden \u00e7\u0131karak rejim kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, mezhebi, etnik, co\u011frafi ve siyasi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar ve \u2018derinle\u015fmesi ama\u00e7lanan\u2019 d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131, en az\u0131ndan bunun ama\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eiilik i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli kentlerden biri olan (!) Me\u015fhed\u2019te, \u015eii rejimi (ba\u015fta Ruhani ve Hamaney\u2019i) hedef alan ve bu dinami\u011fiyle birlikte \u015eiilik i\u00e7i \u00e7eki\u015fme emareleri de ta\u015f\u0131yan bir dalgayla birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce ba\u015flayan toplumsal g\u00f6sterilerin art\u0131k do\u011fudaki ve orta-g\u00fcney b\u00f6lgedeki birka\u00e7 il hari\u00e7 h\u0131zla \u00fclke geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada \u0130ran i\u00e7in temel kritik noktalar \u015funlar:<\/p>\n

1- Ekonomik zafiyetlerin ana gerek\u00e7eyi olu\u015fturmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen siyasi, etnik ve mezhepsel ihtilaf-k\u0131r\u0131lma ve d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klardan beslenmeyi ve derinle\u015ftirmeyi ama\u00e7layan karma\u015fa ortam\u0131nda, \u0130RAN REJ\u0130M\u0130NE BA\u011eLI KAR\u015eIT G\u00dc\u00c7LER\u0130N SOKAKLARA \u00c7IKMASI \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en kritik s\u00fcreci i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Rejim yanl\u0131s\u0131 sivil-silahl\u0131-sopal\u0131-te\u00e7hizatl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin olaylar\u0131n bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda \u00fcretece\u011fi etki, toplum ve g\u00f6stericiler-protestocular taraf\u0131ndan nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lanacak? Kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler-g\u00f6stericiler taraf\u0131ndan dengelenmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131, en az\u0131ndan bu \u015fekilde bir \u015fayia ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde \u0130ran\u2019da i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi, isyan ve ayaklanmalar\u0131n ba\u015f g\u00f6stermesi, hatta i\u00e7 sava\u015fa do\u011fru evrilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretiyor.<\/p>\n

2- Maniple edilen etnik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar ve etki: \u00d6zellikle KCK-PKK\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran kolu PJAK ve onun silahl\u0131 kanad\u0131 YRK, \u00f6te taraf\u0131yla imkan ve kabiliyetleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmakla birlikte KDP-\u0130 (\u0130ran) Pe\u015fmergelerinin etkisi \u0130ran\u2019daki K\u00fcrt etnik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131na \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu noktada \u00f6zellikle PKK\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019daki K\u00fcrt taban \u00fczerindeki etkisi \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. PKK, olaylar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte pozisyon alm\u0131\u015f durumda ve kendisine ba\u011fl\u0131-yak\u0131n medyadan s\u00fcrekli ayaklanma-isyan \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

3- Ahvaz Araplar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Irak-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temel gerek\u00e7esini olu\u015fturan b\u00f6lgede (\u0130ran g\u00fcneybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki Irak\u2019a ve k\u00f6rfeze kom\u015fu ve yak\u0131n alanlarda) ya\u015fanan S\u00fcnniler ve Araplar. G\u00f6sterilerle birlikte \u2018S\u00fcnni\u2019 Ensar Furkan (Kuran destek\u00e7ileri) \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 Ahvaz \u015eehitleri Tugay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki petrol boru hatt\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sabotaj ve yay\u0131nlad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler ile Ahvaz \u015eahinleri ad\u0131ndaki bir ba\u015fka S\u00fcnni tabanl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn Ahvaz b\u00f6lgesindeki Bu Ali Sina petrokimya tesisine yapt\u0131klar\u0131 kundaklama ve s\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyen yang\u0131n, g\u00f6sterilerle birlikte \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

4- Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nem noktas\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneydo\u011fusundaki Sistan ve Belucistan b\u00f6lgesi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem konvansiyonel silahlar\u0131yla m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi b\u00f6lge ve o co\u011frafyada ya\u015fayan toplumlar\u0131n g\u00f6sterilerle birlikte ortaya koyaca\u011f\u0131 toplumsal tepki \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

5- Ve tabii \u00fclkenin kuzeyinde Azerbaycan T\u00fcrkleri. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 g\u00f6sterilerle kendini belli eden Caferi T\u00fcrklere dair ayaklanma ya da isyan emareleri g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Olaylar Nas\u0131l Geli\u015febilir?<\/h2>\n

En nihayet, \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fayan b\u00fct\u00fcn etnik, mezhebi, siyasi ve etnik-mezhep i\u00e7i farkl\u0131l\u0131klar \u00fczerinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 resimlerin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu noktada \u0130ran ordusunun, Devrim muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n, Devrim muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 yerel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve milis te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n\u0131n, mustazaflar g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc seferberli\u011finin ve Kud\u00fcs g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ortaya koyaca\u011f\u0131 etkiler \u00e7ok \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda.
\n\u00d6zellikle Kud\u00fcs Tugaylar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesinde ortaya koyaca\u011f\u0131 etki ve m\u00fczakere g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u0130ran\u2019daki toplumsal g\u00f6sterilerin ka\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131yla ve derinle\u015fmesiyle ilgili \u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te taraf\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sosyal medya eri\u015fimlerine, ileti\u015fim ve etkile\u015fime engel olmak amac\u0131yla interneti ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, bunu \u00f6ng\u00f6ren baz\u0131 \u2018d\u0131\u015f\u2019 g\u00fc\u00e7 ve etki odaklar\u0131n\u0131n uydu \u00fczerinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z internet eri\u015fimi sa\u011flayan (Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131nda da s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclen) binlerce teknolojik oyunca\u011f\u0131 (!) (\u00e7anta internet sistemini) \u0130ran\u2019a soktu\u011fu ifade ve iddia ediliyor. Zaten \u2018d\u0131\u015f etkiye dair\u2019 bu ve benzeri pek \u00e7ok iddian\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu, \u0130ran\u2019daki toplumsal g\u00f6steriler ve devam\u0131nda derinle\u015fen etnik-mezhebi-siyasi manip\u00fclasyonlara ve ama\u00e7lar\u0131na dair temel ispatlar\u0131 da ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Y\u0131l\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde d\u00fcnya, \u0130ran’dan gelen haberlerle \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k ya\u015f\u0131yor. Aniden sokaklarda g\u00f6steriler, devletin sert tepkisi, d\u0131\u015f manip\u00fclasyon iddialar\u0131… Hadiseler h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam ederken yazar s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131na bir analiz sunuyor. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":850,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2,66,69],"tags":[],"coauthors":[37],"class_list":["post-846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","category-siyaset-tarih","category-yakin-cografya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/35"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=846"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/millidusunce.com\/misak\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}